Final thoughts: It’s been fun keeping up this page, following the polls (and learning where to find them quickly) during this campaign.
1. The state polling was excellent, with PPP probably the best, and Rasmussen the worst of the “big name” pollsters.
2. The myth that polls should weigh for party ID was disproven – the pollsters did it right.
3. Nate Silver’s model was extremely accurate. If you followed the polls and read his blog, nothing that happened Tuesday evening was a surprise. It felt like I was watching a well rehearsed play, knowing what was to come next.
So check out Nate Silver’s blog at the NY Times (which models probable election outcomes), or Amy Fried’s blog at the Bangor Daily News.
FINAL POLLS -late November 4 (after 9:00 EST) and November 5, Monday
ABC/WaPo: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Angus Reid: Obama 51 Romney 48 (Obama + 3)
ARG: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
DailyKos/SEIU: Obama 50 Romney 48 (Obama + 2)
Democracy Corps: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Gallup: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Gravis Marketing: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 50 Romney 49 (Obama + 1)
Monmouth U.: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
PPP: Obama 50 Romney 48 (Obama + 2)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 45 (45.49) (Obama + 5)
Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Reuters: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
UPI: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Zogby: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Colorado – PPP: Obama 52 Romney 46 (Obama + 6)
Colorado – Onsight/Keating: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Colorado – IPSOs/Reuters: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Florida – PPP: Obama 50 Romney 49 (Obama + 1)
Florida – Florida Times Union: Obama 47 Romney 52 (Romney + 5)
Florida – Zogby: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Florida – IPSOs/Reuters: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Iowa – ARG: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Michigan – Angus Reid: Obama 52 Romney 47 (Obama + 5)
Nevada – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
New Hampshire – WMUR/Granite State: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
New Hampshire – UNH: Obama 51 Romney 48 (Obama + 3)
New Hampshire – ARG: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
New Hampshire – Rasmussen: Obama 50 Romney 48 (Obama + 2)
North Carolina – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
North Carolina – Gravis Marketing: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
Ohio – U. of Cincinnati: Obama 50 Romney 48.5 (Obama + 1.5)
Ohio – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
Ohio – Survey USA: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Ohio – IPSOs/Reuters: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – Gravis Marketing: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Pennsylvania – Gravis Marketing: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Pennsylvania – Angus Reid: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
Virginia – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
Virginia – NBC/Marist: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama +1)
Virginia – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 50 (Romney + 2)
Virginia – IPSOs/Reuters: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Wisconsin – Angus Reid: Obama 53 Romney 46 (Obama + 7)
Florida Senate – PPP: Nelson 51 Mack 46 (Nelson, D + 5)
Florida Senate – Angus Reid: Nelson 53 Mack 45 (Nelson, D + 8)
Florida Senate – IPSOs/Reuters: Nelson 55 Mack 40 (Nelson, D + 15)
Nevada Senate – PPP: Heller 48 Berkley 46 (Heller, R + 2)
Massachusetts Senate – Boston Herald: Brown 49 Warren 48 (Brown, R + 1)
Missouri Senate – Survey USA: McCaskill 51 Akin 36 (McCaskill + 15)
Ohio Senate – Rasmussen: Brown 50 Mandel 48 (Brown, D + 2)
Ohio Senate – IPSOs/Reuters: Brown 52 Mandel 43 (Brown, D + 9)
Ohio Senate – Survey USA: Brown 44 Mandel 41 (Brown, D + 3)
Ohio Senate – U. of Cincy: Brown 51 Mandel 47 (Brown, D + 4)
Pennsylvania Senate – Angus Reid: Casey 53 Smith 46 (Casey, D + 7)
Virginia Senate – PPP: Kaine 52 Allen 46 (Kaine, D + 6)
Virginia Senate – NBC/Marist: Kaine 49 Allen 46 (Kaine, D + 3)
Virginia Senate – Rasmussen: Kaine 49 Allen 47 (Kaine, D + 2)
Virginia Senate – IPSOs/Reuters: Kaine 48 Allen 46 (Kaine, D + 2)
Wisconsin Senate – IPSOs/Reuters: Baldwin 50 Thompson 47 (Baldwin, D + 3)
Gallup returns! Instead of giving Governor Romney a 5 point lead it’s down to one point. Interestingly, Obama is ahead by 3 among registered voters. Though Romney is still in the lead, this poll suggests that things have trended towards Obama in the last week. But a one point race is essentially a statistical dead heat. Gallup has reverted to the mean.
If the McCaskill poll is accurate she’s pulling away and Akin is toast. It is an outlier though.
The Florida Times Union poll looks bad for Obama, but it’s an outlier — and it surveyed only 467 likely and registered voters, giving it a 4.6 margin of error. It may be right, but it’s one of the lower quality polls. The best polls for Romney come from ARG (which has been Romney friendly all cycle) and the U. of Cincinnati in Ohio. U of Cincy had Ohio tied last week, so this close poll is movement towards Obama. The national polls continue to tilt toward Obama, though Rasmussen and Gallup have Romney with a one point lead.
Sorry about shifting font colors. Apparently when I started using colors I then clicked a darker font than usual for text. Otherwise, not much to say – the polls continue to point to Obama as the favorite.
November 4, 8:07 PM – Sunday
ABC/WaPo: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
CNN/ORC: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
NBC/WSJ: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
PEW: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Politico/Battleground: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
PPP Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
UPI: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Yougov: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Arizona – PPP: Obama 46 Romney 53 (Romney + 7)
Florida – Zogby/Newsmax: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Florida – Reuteres/IPSOs: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Iowa – PPP: Obama 50 Romney 48 (Obama + 2)
Maine – Critical Insights: Obama 49 Romney 42 (Obama + 7)
Michigan – Baydoun/Foster: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
Minnesota – PPP: Obama 53 Romney 45 (Obama + 8)
Montana – PPP: Obama 45 Romney 52 (Romney + 7)
Missouri – PPP: Obama 45 Romney 53 (Romney + 8)
New Hampshire – UNH: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
New Hampshire – PPP: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Ohio – Columbus Dispatch: Obama 50 Romney 48 (Obama + 2)
Ohio – Newsweek/Zogby: Obama 50 Romney 42 (Obama + 8)
Ohio – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 48 Romney 44 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – PPP: Obama 52 Romney 47 (Obama + 5)
Pennsylvania – PPP: Obama 52 Romney 46 (Obama + 6)
Pennsylvania – Morning Call: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Pennsylvania – Pittsburgh Tribune: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Virginia – Zogby/Newsmax: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Virginia – Reuteres/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Arizona Senate – PPP: Flake 51 Carmona 46 (Flake, R + 5)
Florida Senate – Mason Dixon: Nelson 49 Mack 43 (Nelson D + 6)
Maine – Critical Insights: King 49 Summers 33 Dill 11 (King, I + 16)
Massachusetts Senate – Western New England: Warren 50 Brown 46 (Warren, D + 4)
Minnesota – Survey USA: Obama 52 Romney 41 (Obama + 11)
Missouri Senate – PPP: McCaskill 48 Akin 44 (McCaskill, D + 4)
Montana Senate – PPP: Tester 48 Rehberg 46 (Tester, D + 2)
Ohio Senate – Columbus Dispatch: Brown 51 Mandel 45 (Brown, D + 6)
Ohio Senate – PPP: Brown 54 Mandel 44 (Brown, D + 10)
Pennsylvania Senate – PPP: Casey 52 Smith 44 (Casey, D + 8)
Pennsylvania Senate – Morning Call: Casey 51 Smith 45 (Casey, D + 6)
Minnesota – Amendment to Ban Gay Marriage: 45 Yes 52 No (No + 7)
Big national poll of the day: The Pew Research Center, which had Romney once up four now has Obama up three just before the election. They are an extremely reputable firm and this causes me to be slightly more confident that the polls are swinging towards Obama near the end. Obama also hits the 50% mark.
Yougov dumped about 30 state polls today. Given it’s a pure internet poll I’m not going to post all of them, but you can check them out. No big surprises, the polls are similar to others. They show very narrow leads for Romney in Florida and North Carolina, Obama leads the other swing states.
Mostly good polls for Obama. Baydoun Foster has been skewing Michigan way towards the Republicans (they also has Stabenow only up 6, most polls have her up 12-18). Either they know something everyone else doesn’t, or you can’t put too much stock in their poll.
The Pittsburgh Tribune poll, as noted yesterday, skews its data by making assumptions on party ID. Therefore, I do not find it credible. One has to look at a mail on poll, like that of the Columbus Dispatch for Ohio, as questionable too — though one can’t dismiss it.
Zogby is not trusted by the left or the right, so make what you will out of his polls. I’m regretting choosing Carmona in my Senate predictions yesterday, but I won’t change – the PPP poll makes it look like Flake’s got it in the bag.
November 3, 9:34 PM – Saturday
ABC/Wapo: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
PPP Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
UPI: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Zogby: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Colorado – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Florida – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Florida – NBC/Marist: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Florida – Mason Dixon: Obama 45 Romney 51 (Romney + 6)
Iowa – Grove Insight: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
Iowa – Des Moines Register: Obama 47 Romney 42 (Obama + 5)
Michigan – PPP: Obama 52 Romney 46 (Obama + 6)
Minnesota – AFF: Obama 45 Romney 46 (Romney + 1)
Ohio – NBC/Marist: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Ohio – Grove Insight: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 46 Romney 45 (Obama + 1)
Oregon – PPP: Obama 52 Romney 46 (Obama + 6)
Virginia – Reuterse/IPSOs: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Washington – PPP: Obama 53 Romney 46 (Obama + 7)
Wisconsin – Grove Insight: Obama 48 Romney 42 (Obama + 6)
Wisconsin – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 48 (Obama + 3)
Connecticut Senate – PPP: Murphy 52 McMahon 43 (Murphy, D + 9)
Florida Senate – NBC/Marist: Nelson 52 Mack 43 (Nelson, D + 9)
Massachusetts Senate – PPP: Warren 52 Brown 46 (Warren, D + 6)
Montana – Mason Dixon: Rehberg 49 Tester 45 (Rehberg, R + 4)
Ohio Senate – Rasmussen – Brown 48 Mandel 48 (tie)
Ohio Senate – NBC/Marist: Brown 50 Mandel 45 (Brown, D + 5)
Pennsylvania Senate – Pittsburgh Tribune: Casey 46 Smith 45 (Casey, D + 1)
Wisconsin Senate – Baldwin 51 Thompson 48 (Baldwin, D + 3)
Washington St. Same Sex Marriage – PPP: 52 Yes 44 No (Yes + 8)
Overall another solid day of polling for Obama, as he leads in just about every swing state, though still be narrow margins.
A note on the AFF poll. It’s not credible. It’s a conservative group trying to spin the idea that Romney has momentum and is pulling even in Minnesota. No Minnesota poll recently (and it’s a heavily polled state) has shown that kind of movement. Normally polls like this, or internal leaked polls, I don’t put on my list. They aren’t worth anything. This poll is worthless, but since it’s planted to create buzz (Drudge hyped it), I felt I needed to bring it up.
RAND is showing a trend towards Romney, Mason Dixon shows a Romney lead in Florida, as well as Rehberg up four in the Montana Senate race. It’s a good polling company, but clearly has assumptions that push up the “R” vote. Are those assumptions right? Dr. Michael McDonald, who studies voter turn out and early voting (one of the top experts, over at George Mason) says he expects 60 – 61% turnout. That would be slightly down from 2008, but still at a level in line with the expectation of high turnout. That would go against Gallup’s notion that turn out will be down. We’ll see on Tuesday.
The Pittsburgh Tribune poll that shows Casey and Smith dead even weights for party ID, something that most pollsters believe warps the data. Unless its verified by other polls, I don’t trust it.
I should have color coded earlier! Any polls that I find after 10:00 will be posted as of November 4 so people don’t miss them.
November 2, 8:10 PM – Friday
ABC Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
PPP Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Purple Strategies: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
UPI: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Zogby: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Colorado – PPP: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Colorado – Survey USA: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Colorado – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
Florida – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Iowa – Gravis Marketing: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Maine – PPP: Obama 55 Romney 42 (Obama + 13)
Maine – 2nd district only – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Michigan – Grove Insight: Obama 48 Romney 41 (Obama + 7)
Michigan – PPP: Obama 52 Romney 46 (Obama + 6)
Michigan – Rasmussen: Obama 52 Romney 47 (Obama + 5)
Minnesota – PPP: Obama 53 Romney 44 (Obama + 9)
New Hampshire – New England College: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama +6)
Ohio – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
Ohio – WeAskAmerica: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – CNN/OR: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Ohio – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Virginia – WeAskAmerica: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Virginia – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Wisconsin – WeAskAmerica: Obama 52 Romney 45 (Obama + 7)
Indiana Senate – DePauw: Donnelly 47 Mourdock 36 (Donnelly, D + 11)
Indiana Senate – Rasmussen: Donnelly 45 Mourdock 42 (Donnelly, D + 3)
Maine Senate – PPP: King 50 Summer 36 Dill 12 (King, I + 14)
Montana Senate – Rasmussen: Tester 49 Rehberg 48 (Tester, D + 1)
Nebraska Senate – WeAskAmerica: Fischer 54 Kerrey 41 (Fischer, R + 13)
Virginia Senate – WeAskAmerica: Kaine 50 Allen 50 (tie)
Wisconsin Senate – Rasmussen: Thompson 48 Baldwin 48 (tie)
Wisconsin Senate – WeAskAmerica: Baldwin 49 Thompson 46 (Baldwin + 3)
Maine Same Sex Marriage – PPP: Yes 52% No 45 % (Yes + 7)
Rasmussen shows the race tied, it was up 2 for Romney. Tracking polls can be quirky, though, I wouldn’t read too much into that. If the DePauw poll is correct Mourdock’s rape comments have buried him. This would be yet another seat that the Republicans could have easily kept but lost due to choosing a tea partier. Richard Lugar would be up by 50!
So say Kerrey’s been surging in Nebraska with endorsements from Hagel and Lieberman. The We Ask America poll suggests not, though it has been known to be a poll that can give off results due to its automated nature. Still, the result is consistent with earlier polling.
Grove Insight leans D, Gravis and Rasmussen lean R. Interpret their polls as you see fit! PPP has a Democratic core, but their polls have been more consistent with others this cycle. Still, take that in account as you read them.
November 1, 9:36 PM – Thursday
ABC/WaPo: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Highpoint U: Obama 46 Romney 43 (Obama + 3)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
UPI: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Zogby: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Colorado – Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
Colorado – CNN/OR: Obama 50 Romney 48 (Obama + 2)
Colorado – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Colorado – Callfire: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Iowa – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Iowa – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Iowa – Callfire: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Michigan – PPP: Obama 53 Romney 45 (Obama + 8)
Nevada – SurveyUSA: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
New Hampshire – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
North Carolina – Highpoint: Obama 45 Romney 46 (Romney + 1)
South Dakota – Mitchell Republic: Obama 42 Romney 50 (Romney + 8)
Virginia – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Virginia – Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Wisconsin – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
Wisconsin – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Wisconsin – St Norbert College: Obama 52 Romney 41 (Obama + 11)
Florida Senate – Reuters/IPSOs: Nelson 52 Mack 41 (Nelson, D + 11)
Massachusetts Senate – Rasmussen: Warren 52 Brown 47 (Warren, D + 5)
Ohio Senate – Reuters/IPSOs: Brown 50 Mandel 42 (Brown, D + 8)
Virginia Senate – Reuters/IPSOs: Kaine 47 Allen 44 (Kaine, D + 3)
Wisconsin Senate – NBC/NYT/Marist: Baldwin 48 Thompson 47 (Baldwin, D + 1)
Wisconsin Senate – Rasmussen: Thompson 49 Baldwin 48 (Thompson, R + 1)
Wisconsin Senate – St. Norbert College: Thompson 46 Baldwin 43 (Thompson, R + 3)
South Dakota House – Mitchell Republic: Noem 50 Varilek 44 (Noem, R + 6)
In all, another good polling day for Obama. Drift in the national polls, but in general seems drifting the President’s way. The state polls are mostly showing Obama leads, albeit slight. I can’t trust the St.Norbert College poll — Obama up 11 in Wisconsin but Thompson up 3? But who knows at this point!
As expected, Rasmussen state polls paint a rosier picture for Romney than do the others. But the Marist polls show tighter swing state races than yesterday’s slew of polls. It will be all about turnout, I suspect. Both sides have different turnout assumptions, and that guides the stated optimism of each side, though Team Romney is grimmer than Team Obama at this point.
Gallup has suspended its daily tracking poll. It says he does not believe it can find a valid national sample with so many lacking power. It hopes to do interviews Thursday through Sunday to give a final poll/prediction. (Sorry for the South Dakota polls – it’s where I grew up and I couldn’t resist).
October 31, 8:07 PM – Wednesday
ABC/WaPo: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
FOX: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
National Journal: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
UPI: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Yougov: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Zogby: Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
Colorado – WeAskAmerica: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Colorado – Reuters: Obama 45 Romney 46 (Romney + 1)
Florida – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Florida – Miami Herald: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Florida – Gravis Marketing: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
Florida – WeAskAmerica: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Florida – Reuters: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Iowa – PPP: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Iowa – WeAskAmerica: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Iowa – U. of Iowa: Obama 44 Romney 45 (Romney + 1)
Michigan – Detroit News: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama +3)
Michigan – EPIC/MRA: Obama 48 Romney 42 (Obama + 6)
Minnesota – Survey USA – Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
North Carolina – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
Ohio – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Ohio – PPP: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Ohio – U of Cincy: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Ohio – Reuters: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Pennsylvania – Franklin Marshall: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Virginia – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Virginia – Roanoke College: Obama 44 Romney 49 (Romney + 5)
Virginia – Reuters: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Wisconsin – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Wisconsin – Marquette: Obama 51 Romney 43 (Obama + 8)
Florida Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Nelson 52 Mack 39 (Nelson, D + 13)
Florida Senate – Gravis Marketing: Nelson 49 Mack 46 (Nelson, D + 3)
Missouri Senate – WeAskAmerica: McCaskill 49 Akin 45 (McCaskill, D + 5)
Nevada Senate – Survey USA: Heller 46 Berkley 40 (Heller, R + 6)
Ohio Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Brown 51 Mandel 42 (Brown, D + 9)
Ohio Senate – U. of Cincy: Brown 49 Mandel 44 (Brown, D + 5)
Ohio Senate – Rasmussen: Brown 50 Mandel 48 (Brown, D + 2)
Pennsylvania Senate – Franklin Marshall: Casey 48 Smith 39 (Casey, D + 9)
Virginia Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Kaine 50 Allen 46 (Kaine, D + 4)
Virginia Senate – Roanoke College: Allen 47 Kaine 42 (Allen, R + 5)
Wisconsin Senate – Marquette: Baldwinn 47 Thompson 43 (Baldwin, D + 4)
If Obama loses this election, it will be a sign of a massive failure of state polling. The National Journal poll showing a five point Obama advantage is in line with the state polls. It is starting to look like Obama is breaking away — but we do still have six days!
Michigan appears tighter than most thought. It could be an outlier poll, it had a small sample of 600 likely voters. Still, both camps are making ad buys just in case.
The Roanoke College poll looks like an outlier. Although most polls show Obama up in Virginia, I might believe a poll showing Romney up. But Allen up 5 in the Senate race? I find that extremely unlikely. Gravis marketing continues to lean way “R” in comparison to other pollsters, and is not trustworthy.
October 30, 9:10 PM – Tuesday
ABC/WaPo: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
CBS/NYT: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
NPR: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
SEIU/DailyKos: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
UPI: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Colorado – Grove Insight: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Florida – SurveyUSA – Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Georgia – Survey USA – Obama 44 Romney 52 (Romney + 8)
North Carolina: Survey USA: Obama 45 Romney 50 (Romney + 5)
Ohio – Pharos: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Ohio – Grove Insight: Obama 48 Romney 44 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – Survey USA: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Oregon – The Oregonian: Obama 47 Romney 41 (Obama + 6)
Florida Senate – SurveyUSA: Nelson 49 Mack 41 (Nelson, D + 8)
Massachusetts Senate – Suffolk: Warren 53 Brown 46 (Warren, D + 7)
North Dakota Senate – Mason Dixon: Berg 47 Heitkamp 45 (Berg, R + 2)
Ohio Senate – Survey USA: Brown 46 Mandel 41 (Brown, D + 5)
The more I live and breath these polls, the clearer the picture: there are two plausible but very different ways to interpret the polls. One gives a victory to Romney, the other to Obama. I investigate those today in my blog.
Fewer polls today thanks to Sandy. The North Dakota Senate race is becoming a nail-biter! Grove Insight and Pharos are to be looked at skeptically, the Democratic equivalents to Rasmussen. Still, good state numbers for Obama, the national polls remain tied.
October 29, 9:48 PM – Monday
ABC/WaPo: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
ARG: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 51 (Romney + 5)
PPP: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Pew Research: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Politico/GWU/Battleground: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
RAND: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
UPI: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Colorado – ARG: Romney 48 Obama 48 (Romney + 1)
Florida – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Florida – CNN/OR: Obama 49 Romney 50 (Romney + 1)
Nevada – Grove Insights: Obama 49 Romney 43 (Obama + 6)
Nevada – Callfire: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
New Hampshire – Lake Research: Obama 47 Romney 42 (Obama + 5)
New Hampshire – Grove Insights: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
New Mexico – Albequerque Journal: Obama 50 Romney 41 (Obama + 9)
North Carolina – Elon: Obama 45 Romney 45 (tie)
Ohio – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 50 (Romney + 2)
Ohio – Pharos: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Connecticut – Rasmussen: Murphy 51 McMahon 45 (Murphy, D + 6)
Florida Senate – PPP: Nelson 50 Mack 42 (Nelson, D + 8)
Florida Senate – Rasmussen: Nelson 49 Mack 46 (Nelson, D + 3)
Florida Senate – Sunshine News/VSS – Nelson 49 (Nelson, D + 5)
Indiana Senate – Pharos: Donnelly 47 Mourdock 46 (Donnelly, D + 1)
Massachusetts Senate – Boston Globe/UNH: Warren 47 Brown 47 (tie)
Montana Senate – Pharos: Tester 48 Rehberg 47 (Tester, D + 1)
Nebraska Senate – Pharos: Fischer 50 Kerrey 47 (Fischer, R + 3)
Nevada Senate – Grove Insights: Heller 44 Berkley 43 (Heller, R + 1)
North Dakota Senate – Pharos : Heitkamp 50 Berg 48 (Heitkamp, D + 2)
Ohio Senate – Cincy Enquirer: Brown 51 Mandel 47 (Brown, D + 1)
Ohio Senate – Pharos: Brown 50 Mandel 43 (Brown, D + 7)
IBD/TIPP and PPP aren’t doing tracking polls today due to Sandy. The impact on polling is unclear.
PPP is run by Democrats, but their polling has been consistently good this cycle. To show Obama up four in Ohio, up one in Florida and up two in New Hampshire suggests that Obama’s swing state lead is consistent, but still small. Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 in Ohio. PPP’s polls are more in line with other non-partisan polls, but the margins are slight so both campaigns have to fight like it’s neck and neck. Rasmussen was the most biased pollster in 2010, off by more than any other, and almost always in favor of the Republican. Keep that in mind.
Pharos and Grove Insights are relatively new pollsters Grove is affiliated with the left, and its polls show a D lean. Pharos is apparently a new company run by someone who used to be with Gallup. It also seems to lean D. So read those polls with the same skeptical eye as Rasmussen or Gravis, but it’s useful to see them all.
The Politico poll shows Obama going from being behind Romney to leading. It’s not statistically significant, but this is a very good “snapshot” poll, reinforcing the idea that the race remains very, very tight. Yet a note at the end of the poll says their election modelling shows Romney with a five point lead. This could suggest Gallup is including such modeling in its final number. While I’m skeptical, this should worry Democrats. This might also explain the odd disconnect between Obama’s job approval (51% in Gallup) and Romney’s lead. PEW gives Democrats hope as a four point lead by Romney has turned into a tie race in their latest poll.
UNH shows Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown tied in Massachusetts, a change from earlier polling. UNH is not a partisan pollster, but has had issues of being out of sync with other polls. When everyone had New Hampshire even or leaning Romney, UNH put Obama in a nine point lead. So I wouldn’t discount the other polls yet!
October 28, 8:10 PM, Sunday
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Gallup: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 45 Romney 44 (Obama + 1)
RAND Tracking: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Minnesota – Mason Dixon: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
New Hampshire – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Ohio – Ohio News: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
Ohio – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – Gravis Marketing: Obama 50 Romney 49 (Obama + 1)
Nebraska Senate – Omaha World Herald: Fischer 49 Kerrey 46 (Fischer, R + 3)
Ohio Senate – PPP: Brown 53 Mandel 42 (Brown, D + 11)
Ohio Senate – Gravis Marketing: Brown 48 Mandel 47 (Brown, D + 1)
Virginia Senate – Washington Post: Kaine 51 Allen 44 (Kaine, D + 7)
Wisconsin Senate – Rasmussen: Thompson 49 Baldwin 48 (Thompson, R + 1)
Before you react with alarm or delight to the tied Ohio poll, its data was collected mostlly before the third debate. Given the other Ohio polls showing Obama ahead were more recent, I’m skeptical that Ohio is tied. PPP has been very accurate, it shows Obama up 4 and Sherrod Brown with an 11 point lead in the Senate race. Gravis (again, not trustworthy) shows Brown up by only 1.
RAND remains in a universe where Obama is running away with this race. Meanwhile Mason-Dixon has Obama up only three in Minnesota? If that’s true, Romney supporters should be thrilled. The national polls remain tied and without direction. Rasmussen, Gallup, and Reuters have shown a slight drift in Obama’s favor, while IBD and ABC/WaPo have drifted a bit towards Romney. No one has momentum.
The Nebraska Senate race has long thought to be an easy pick up for the GOP. Today’s Omaha World Herald poll suggests it may be competitive. The GOP says its internal polling shows Fischer way ahead and the national campaigns aren’t throwing resources into the race, so the poll has to be taken with a grain of salt.
October 27, 8:25 PM, Saturday
Gallup: Obama 46 Romney 51 (Romney + 5)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
PPP: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
RAND: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
North Carolina – Rasmussen: Obama 46 Romney 52 (Romney + 6)
Minnesota – St. Cloud State U: Obama 53 Romney 45 (Obama + 8)
Missouri – Mason Dixon: Obama 41 Romney 54 (Romney + 13)
Pennsylvania – Philly Inquirer: Obama 49 Romney 43 (Obama + 6)
Virginia – Gravis Marketing: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Virginia – Washington Post: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
Missouri Senate- Mason Dixon: McCaskill 45 Akin 43 (McCaskill, D + 2)
Pennsylvania Senate – Philly Inquirer: Casey 49 Smith 42 (Casey, D + 7)
Virginia Senate – Gravis Marketing: Kaine 46 Allen 48 (Allen, R + 2)
RAND continues to see Obama as coming on strong. I just posted a blog entry examining that. The Missouri Senate race appears closer than most think if Mason Dixon is correct, though the Pennsylvania race doesn’t seem to be tightening if the Philadelphia Inquirer is accurate. The tracking polls show slight – slight as in floating rather than trending – movement to Obama.
Again, I distrust Gravis Marketing so I’m not buying that Allen leads Kaine in Virginia unless its confirmed by other polls. If Gravis shows Virginia even, then perhaps the 5% Obama edge PPP found there a couple days ago is accurate. A late breaking Washington Post poll shows Obama up four in Virginia as well.
October 26, 8:45 PM, Friday
ABC/WaPo: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 51 (Romney + 5)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
PPP Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
RAND: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
Reuters: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Colorado – Purple Strategies: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Florida – Sunshine State News/VSS: Obama 46 Romney 51 (Romney + 5)
Florida – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 50 (Romney + 2)
Iowa – Gravis Marketing: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Nevada – Gravis Marketing: Obama 50 Romney 49 (Obama + 1)
New Hampshire – NewEnglandCollege: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
North Carolina – Civitas: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
North Carolina – Gravis Marketing: Obama 45 Romney 53 (Romney + 8)
North Carolina – Grove Insight: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
Ohio – CNN/OR: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – ARG: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Ohio – Purple Strategies: Obama 46 Romney 44 (Obama + 2)
Virginia – Purple Strategies: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Wisconsin – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 49 (tie)
Wisconsin – Grove Insight: Obama 48 Romney 43 (Obama + 5)
Massachusetts Senate – Rasmussen: Warren 52 Brown 47 (Warren, D + 5)
Pennsylvania Senate- Rasmussen: Casey 46 Smith 45 (Casey, D + 1)
Nevada Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Heller 49 Berkley 43 (Heller, R + 6)
Virginia Senate – Rasmussen: Kaine 49 Allen 48 (Kaine, D + 1)
A word about pollsters. Purple Strategies is a Republican outfit, run by Alex Castellanos who is the Republican analyst on CNN. Their polls have tended to favor Republicans by a few points. Two polls have shown North Carolina effectively tied, then Gravis Marketing shows Romney up 8. This is why I don’t trust Gravis. Grove Insight, on the other hand, gives Obama a lead in NC – they are D leaning. North Carolina is likely tied to slightly tilted to Romney.
The Florida poll by VSS is good news for Romney if it’s accurate – one day of polling was pre-debate, but 5% is a large margin. Other polls show Florida closer, so confirmation is needed. Rasmussen shows the Senate race in Pennsylvania much closer than most other polls, though it has been a tightening race.
Rand shows a stark post-debate shift to Obama. Their poll follows 3500 people over the course of the election season rather than choosing new people every time. It’ll be interesting to see how their method performs compared to traditional methods. They also measure likelihood by how people self-report how likely they are to vote (25%, 75%, etc.) It gives Obama a six point lead while Gallup, running a traditional likely voter screen, gives Romney a five point lead again.
RAND claims it can better assess trends by following the same 3500 people. It has trended strongly Obama. Gallup has trended slightly Obama since the debate. As with any “different” approach, RAND has to prove itself relative to traditional polls. For now it’s interesting, but hard to know what to make of its data. If you take out Gallup and Rasmussen, the other polls show Obama slightly ahead, but with a statistically insignificant margin. Intrade prices still make Obama about a 63% favorite.
October 25, 9:44 PM, Thursday
ABC/WaPO Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
AP/Gfk: Obama 45 Romney 47 (Romney + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
PPP: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama +4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
Reuters/IPSOs Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
UPI Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Arizona – Rasmussen: Obama 44 Romney 52 (Romney + 8)
Colorado – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
Colorado – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Colorado – Grove Insight: Obama 46 Romney 43 (Obama + 3)
Colorado – Keating Research: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Florida – Gravis Marketing: Obama 49 Romney 50 (Romney + 1)
Florida – Grove Insight: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Iowa – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Nevada – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
North Carolina – PPP: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Pennsylvania – Rasmussen: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Virginia – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Virginia – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 50 (Romney + 2)
Virginia – FOX news: Romney 47 Obama 45 (Romney + 2)
Wisconsin – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Arizona Senate – Rasmussen: Flake 50 Carmona 44 (Flake, R + 6)
Nevada Senate – Rasmussen: Heller 50 Berkley 45 (Heller, R + 5)
The state PPP polls (Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, North Carolina and Wisconsin) are impressive and perhaps telling. Unlike the tracking polls, their data is all post-debate. But FOX (despite the news station bias, their polls have been good) confirms a slight Virginia lead for Romney, and Marist sees Colorado tied. Tight races!
The AP poll looks troubling for Obama, but note that the interviews were from Oct. 19 to Oct. 23. Most of the interviews were before the last debate, meaning that it doesn’t include any debate bounce Obama received.
One reason to look here for polls is that despite PPP’s solid reputation, Realclearpolitics (which puts PPP polls up sometimes) doesn’t list the Virginia, Wisconsin and Iowa PPP polls. Gravis Marketing has tended to be far more friendly to the GOP than other pollsters, so it giving Romney a one point lead in Florida is actually good news for Obama.
A word of warning: it might be tempting to see Gallup, ABC and Rasmussen’s agreement and think of this as a three point race in favor of Romney. Tracking polls are not all that good in terms of their exact percentages. They are better at showing trends. A three point lead on either side is not something to take to the bank. Rasmussen’s poll is 2/3 post-debate, but both ABC and Gallup have a majority of their data pre-debate.
Rasmussen tends to lean R, but even with that a six point lead for Flake in Arizona is impressive. We’ll see if other polls confirm.
October 24, 9:48 PM, Wednesday
ABC News Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
Pharos Research: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
RAND Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
Reuters/IPSOs Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
UPI Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Michigan – Baydoun/Foster: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Nevada – Rasmussen: Obama 50 Romney 48 (Obama + 2)
Nevada – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
New Hampshire – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 50 (Romney + 2)
Ohio – Time: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Ohio – SurveyUSA: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
Ohio – Pharos Research: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Ohio – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Pennsylvania – Pharos Research: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Virginia – UVA/GMU: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
Wisconsin – Mason Dixon: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Connecticut Senate – Quinnipiac: Murphy 49 McMahon 43 (Murphy, D + 6)
Connecticut Senate – Mason Dixon: Murphy 44 McMahon 44 (tie)
Florida Senate – Pharos Research: Nelson 52 Mack 44 (Nelson + 8)
Indiana Senate – Pharos Research: Mourdock 46 Donnelly 46 (tie)
Massachusetts Senate – MassInc: Warren 50 Brown 44 (Warren, D + 6)
Montana Senate – Pharos Research: Tester 48 Rehberg 46 (Tester, D + 2)
Nebraska Senate – Pharos Research: Fischer 48 Kerrey 45 (Fischer, R + 3)
Nevada Senate – PPP: Heller 44 Berkley 44 (tie)
North Dakota Senate – Pharos Research: Heitkamp 49 Berg 48 (Heitkamp, D + 1)
Ohio Senate – SurveyUSA: Brown 43 Mandel 42 (Brown, D + 1)
Pennsylvania Senate – Pharos Research: Casey 42 Smith 42 (tie)
Wisconsin – Mason Dixon: Baldwin 47 Thompson 45 (Baldwin, D + 2)
Spike for Obama after the debate in RAND, and though Obama remains behind in Gallup, Romney’s three point lead is less than the seven points he lead by three days ago. It appears any momentum for Romney has been halted and perhaps turned around.
Lots of diverse polls today. The Democrats still look good in the Senate. Surprises: Casey in Pennsylvania may be in trouble, while Kerrey in Nebraska may be putting yet another state in play for the Democrats. State polls generally look as good as they’ve been for awhile for Obama. Only Michigan looks bad for Obama – most consider that state out of reach for Romney, are they really tied? Foster Baydoun has had a series of Michigan polls for months that have been very friendly to Romney in defiance of other polls. So I’m not sure I believe this result. It’s also an automated telephone poll.
October 23, 11:15 PM, Tuesday
ABC/WaPo: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Gallup: Obama 46 Romney 51 (Romney + 5)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
PPP Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
RAND: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
UPI: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Yougov: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Connecticut – Rasmussen: Obama 52 Romney 45 (Obama + 7)
Connecticut – Survey USA: Obama 53 Romney 40 (Obama + 13)
Florida – Grove Insight: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Florida – Angus Reid: Obama 46 Romney 51 (Romney + 5)
Minnesota – Rasmussen: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Nevada – ARG: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
New Hampshire – ARG: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Ohio – Angus Reid: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Pennsylvania – Angus Reid: Obama 52 Romney 42 (Obama + 10)
Wisconsin – Angus Reid: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Connecticut Senate – Rasmussen: Murphy 48 McMahon 47 (Murphy, D + 1)
Connecticut Senate – SurveyUSA: Murphy 48 McMahon 44 (Murphy, D + 4)
Florida Senate – PPP: Nelson 45 Mack 41 (Nelson, D + 5)
North Dakota Senate – Rasmussen: Berg 50 Heitkamp 45 (Berg, R + 5)
Wisconsin Senate – Angus Reid: Baldwin 50 Thompson 47 (Baldwin, D + 3)
The North Dakota Senate race should be interesting. Rasmussen has a history of leaning “R,” so it could be closer than the five point margin there. Not the side by side polls in Connecticut between SurveyUSA and Rasmussen — that’s typical, Rasmussen tends to the “R”.
ARG shows Romney leading in NH after UNH showed Obama up 9 yesterday. ARG has been leaning “R” in recent polls, but it is a national firm. I suspect New Hampshire is still slightly in the Obama camp, but clearly these divergent polls suggest uncertainty!
Polling will be even more uncertain until we can see the impact of the last debate. By all accounts Obama won, though many Republicans say Romney succeeded in “passing the Commander in Chief” test. That sounds like spin, but until we get post-debate polls, again, uncertainty reigns! Today’s polls are the last of the pre-debate polls, though tracking polls will for awhile contain pre- and post-debate data.
A note on Gallup – it’s a seven day moving average meaning it’s a slow moving number. If the debate helps Obama, it won’t show up on Gallup as quickly as in other national polls.
October 22, 7:42 PM, Monday
ABC News: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
CBS News: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 51 (Romney + 6)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47 Romney 43 (Obama + 4)
JZ Analytics/Wash Times: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Politico/GWU/Battleground: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
PPP Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
RAND: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Reuters: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
UPI: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 48 (Romney + 2)
Survey USA: Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
Colorado – Rasmussen: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
Iowa – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Missouri – PPP: Obama 46 Romney 52 (Romney + 6)
New Hampshire: WMUR: Obama 51 Romney 42 (Obama + 9)
Ohio – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Ohio – Suffolk: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Pennsylvania – Morning Call: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Florida Senate – SurveyUSA: Nelson 47 Mack 40 (Nelson, D + 7)
Missouri Senate – PPP: McCaskill 46 Akin 40 (McCaskill, D + 6)
Ohio Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Brown 51 Mandel 42 (Brown, D + 9)
Ohio Senate – Suffolk: Brown 46 Mandel 39 (Brown, D + 7)
Pennsylvania Senate – Morning Call: Casey 45 Smith 37 (Casey, D + 8)
Wisconsin Senate – Rasmussen: Thompson 48 Baldwin 46 (Thompson, R + 2)
October 21, 8:10 PM, Sunday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 52 (Romney + 7)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 42 (Obama + 6)
NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tied)
RAND Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Florida – PPP: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Iowa – PPP: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Virginia Senate – Rasmussen: Kaine 49 Allen 48 (Kaine, D + 1)
IBD/TIPP has Obama up six, while Gallup has Romney up 7? Poll confusion!
October 20, 9:07 PM, Saturday
Gallup tracking: Obama 45 Romney 51 (Romney + 6)
IBD/TRIPP: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
PPP tracking: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
RAND tracking: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
UPI: Obama 46 Romney 48 (Romney + 2)
Florida – Survey USA: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Ohio – Gravis Marketing: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Ohio – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Virginia – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Florida Senate – SurveyUSA: Nelson 48 Mack 40 (Nelson, D + 8)
Florida Senate – Rasmussen: Nelson 48 Mack 43 (Nelson, D + 5)
North Dakota Senate – Forum: Berg 50 Heitkamp 40 (Berg, R + 10)
Ohio Senate – PPP: Brown 49 Mandel 44 (Brown, D + 5)
Gravis marketing has tended Republican, but their even result today is matched by a similar result from PPP, so it looks like Ohio has again become even. Florida and Virginia remain close, with Obama holding statistically insignificant leads. The North Dakota Senate poll suggests Berg is pulling away, but one poll can be off and it polled only 500 people. That race still is worth watching.
Gallup remains an outlier on the national race. Nate Silver analyzed this and suggests the likely voter screen is the reason they are so far from the pack. Moreover, Gallup has a history of being wildly off and wrong whenever they are the outlier. State polls seems to confirm what the other national polls say – it’s a close race, with a slight edge to Obama.
October 19, 6:20 PM, Friday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 51 (Romney + 6)
Hartford Courant/UCONN: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
PPP Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 46 Romney 43 (Obama + 3)
Florida – Rasmussen: Obama 46 Romney 51 (Romney + 5)
Florida – Zogby: Obama 48 Romney 42 (Obama + 6)
Florida – CNN/OR: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Iowa – PPP: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Missouri – Rasmussen: Obama 43 Romney 54 (Romney + 11)
New Hampshire – PPP: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Ohio – FOX News: Obama 46 Romney 43 (Obama + 3)
Oregon – Survey USA: Obama 49 Romney 42 (Obama + 7)
Virginia – Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 3)
Virginia – Gravis Marketing: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Wisconsin – Rasmussen: Obama 50 Romney 48 (Obama + 2)
Missouri Senate – Rasmussen: McCaskill 51 Akin 43 (McCaskill, D + 8)
Ohio Senate – Rasmussen: Brown 49 Mandel 44 (Brown, D + 5)
Florida Senate – Zogby: Nelson 46 Mack 33 (Nelson, D + 13)
Virginia Senate – Gravis Marketing: Kaine 46 Allen 48 (Allen, R + 2)
The RAND bump for Obama has disappeared, but Rasmussen has the race now tied. Rasmussen’s state polls continue to look better for Romney than others, and his polls have a history of erring in favor of the Republican.
October 18, 6:56 PM, Thursday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 52 (Romney + 7)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
PPP Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
Yougov: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Colorado – PPP: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Iowa – WSJ/NBC/Marist: Obama 51 Romney 43 (Obama + 8)
Michigan – Denno Research: Obama 44 Romney 40 (Obama + 3)
Michigan – EPIC-MRA: Obama 52 Romney 46 (Obama + 6)
Minnesota – KSTP: Obama 50 Romney 40 (Obama + 10)
North Carolina – Rasmussen: Romney 52 Obama 46 (Romney + 6)
Ohio – Survey USA: Obama 45 Romney 42 (Obama + 3)
Ohio – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Wisconsin – WSJ/NBC/Marist: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Connecticut Senate – UCONN: Murphy 44 McMahon 38 (Murphy, D + 6)
Nevada Senate – Rasmussen: Heller 50 Berkley 43 (Heller, R + 7)
Nevada Senate – Survey USA: Heller 46 Berkley 40 (Heller, R + 6)
Ohio Senate – Survey USA: Brown 43 Mandel 38 (Brown, D + 5)
Wisconsin Senate – WSJ/NBC/Marist: Baldwin 49 Thompson 45 (Baldwin, D + 4)
Rand’s poll shows a spike for Obama after one day’s post-debate data. But it’s too early to know if that’s for real. When looking at state polls, it might be useful to recall that in 2010 Rasmussen had a consistent bias of 3 to 5 points in favor of the Republican candidate. This causes me to read the Ohio poll as meaning Obama as a lead more like 3-5%.
Gallup continues to track strongly for Romney. I’m not sure what’s going on there. It’s a seven day rolling average so it’ll be interesting to see if the lead drops as post-debate polls are added. Gallup is not Rasmussen, so this poll has to be taken seriously, but it is a tracking poll, so we need more data. PPP has started a tracking poll and shows the race tied, as does IBD/TIPP (actually Obama is up 0.5%)
October 17: 5:24 PM, Wednesday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 51 (Romney + 6)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
Connecticut – Siena: Obama 53 Romney 38 (Obama + 15)
Montana – Rasmussen: Obama 45 Romney 53 (Romney + 8)
Nevada – Survey USA: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Nevada – Rasmussen: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
New Hampshire – Rasmussen: Obama 50 Romney 49 (Obama + 1)
Wisconsin – Marquette: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Connecticut Senate – Siena: Murphy 46 McMahon 44 (Murphy, D + 2)
Wisconsin Senate – Marquette: Thompson 46 Baldwin 45 (Thompson, R + 1)
I expect only the tracking polls today since most pollsters want to measure after the debate. Going into the debate the polls show a tight race. Gallup shows Romney up 6, but it remains an outlier. We’ll see if its verified by other polls. I suspect both Gallup and earlier Pew have a more aggressive likely voter model. It’ll be interesting to see if it’s real, or if Gallup is reading an enthusiasm surge for Romney after the first debate. It appears that Obama has gained a tick on the IBD/TIPP poll, but it’s a rounding issue. He’s ahead 47.8 to 45.3%. That’s 1.5%, a slight decrease from yesterday’s 1.6% lead.
Reuters-IPSOs shows Obama won the second Presidential debate 48 – 33, with the rest considering it a draw.
October 16, 2:35 PM, Tuesday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 46 Romney 43 (Obama + 3)
Colorado – WeAskAmerica: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Iowa – WeAskAmerica: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Indiana – Rasmussen: Obama 41 Romney 54 (Romney + 13)
New Hampshire – Suffolk: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Pennsylvania – Quinnipiac: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama +4)
Montana Senate – Rasmussen: Tester 48 Rehberg 48 (tie)
Pennsylvania Senate – Quinnipiac: Casey 48 Smith 45 (Casey, D + 3)
Minnesota 6th – KSTP: Bachmann 50 Graves 41 (Bachmann, R + 9)
Gallup’s poll shows a spike for Romney to a four point lead. Yet Reuters and Rand have been going the other direction, and yesterday’s snapshot polls showed a narrow Obama lead. TIPP had Obama’s lead go from 0.3 yesterday to 1.6% today. Tracking polls can be volatile, but Gallup seems an outlier today (as TIPP did a few days ago when Romney had a 5 point lead in their poll).
October 15, 4:31 PM, Monday
ABC News/WaPost: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
GWU/Politico/Battlefield: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Colorado – Gravis Marketing: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Florida – Gravis Marketing: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Iowa – ARG: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
North Carolina – PPP: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Pennsylvania – Morning Call: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Pennsylvania – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
Virginia – ARG: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Florida Senate: Rasmussen: Nelson 46 Mack 45 (Nelson, D + 1)
Indiana Senate – Rasmussen: Mourdock 47 Donnelly 42 (Mourdock, R + 1)
Michigan Senate – Rasmussen: Stabenow 51 Hoekstra 39 (Stabenow, D + 12)
New Mexico Senate – Albuquerque Journal: Heinrich 48 Wilson 39 (Heinrich, D + 9)
Pennsylvania Senate – Morning Call: Casey 41 Smith 39 (Casey, D + 1)
Pennsylvania Senate – PPP: Casey 50 Smith 39 (Casey, D + 11)
Virginia Senate – Rasmussen: Kaine 48 Allen 47 (Kaine, D + 1)
Early polls show Obama does indeed have a slight lead going into the second debate. The RAND continuous election poll is fascinating in some ways. They have 3500 participants who answer the same questions every week, give probabilities (how likely are you to vote, to vote for Obama, etc.) They claim this may help predict likely voters and more accurately reflect changing opinions. Their numbers show Obama bottoming four days ago and now regaining a significant five point lead. Each data point represents a week average. So far the tracking polls aren’t showing the same dynamic.
October 14, 9:20 PM, Sunday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47 Ryan 46 (Obama + 1)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 46 Romney 45 (Obama + 1)
Florida PPP: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Georgia – Atlanta Journal Constitution : Obama 43 Romney 51 (Romney + 8)
New Mexico – Albuquerque Journal: Obama 49 Romney 39 (Obama + 10)
Florida Senate – PPP: Nelson 45 Mack 37 (Nelson, D + 8)
Tracking polls split, though Reuters and RAND each show movement back towards Obama. Tracking polls are volatile, the race remains close, though yesterdays polls from Arizona and Ohio suggest to me that Obama retains a slight lead.
October 13, 9:00 PM
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 46.4 Romney 45.7 (Obama + 0.7)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Arizona – Behavior Research Center: Obama 44 Romney 42 (Obama + 2)
Ohio – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Arizona Senate – Behavior Research Center: Carmona 44 Fluke 40 (Carmona, D + 4)
Ohio Senate – PPP: Brown 49 Mandel 42 (Brown, D + 7)
The Arizona and Ohio polls are very good news for Democrats. I’ll take the Arizona poll the same way I take the Mason Dixon poll showing Romney up seven in Florida — we’ll see. We need more polls. A light polling day, but after yesterday the Democrats have to be happy with the few polls released!
October 12 – 8:44 PM, Friday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
RAND: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Colorado – Survey USA: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Florida – Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 51 (Romney + 4)
Florida – ARG: Obama 46 Romney 49 (Romney + 3)
Michigan – Rasmussen: Obama 52 Romney 45 (Obama + 7)
New Hampshire – ARG: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
Virginia – Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Florida Senate – Mason Dixon: Nelson 47 Mack 42 (Nelson, D + 5)
Ohio Senate – Rasmussen: Brown 47 Mandel 46 (Brown, D + 1)
Pennsylvania Senate – Philly Inquirer: Casey 48 Smith 38 (Casey, D + 10)
Wisconsin Senate – Rasmussen: Baldwin 51 Thompson 47 (Baldwin, D + 4)
Unlike yesterday today’s state polls are leaning to Romney. It appears Romney has taken a narrow lead in the race, though yesterday’s state polls suggested Obama was still ahead. That makes it, well, very close!
The RAND on line poll is a seven day rolling average. At this time all data is from after the first Presidential debate.
October 11, 4:27 PM, Thursday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
RAND: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 44 Romney 47 (Romney + 3)
Survey USA: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
Colorado – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Florida – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Florida – Mason Dixon: Obama 44 Romney 51 (Romney + 7)
Michigan – Gravis Marketing: Obama 46 Romney 44 (Obama + 2)
Michigan – Detroit News: Obama 49 Romney 42 (Obama + 7)
Nevada – Suffolk: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
New Jersey – Philly Inquirer: Obama 51 Romney 40 (Obama + 11)
North Carolina – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 51 (Romney + 3)
Ohio – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Ohio – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Ohio – Gravis Marketing: Obama 45 Romney 46 (Romney + 1)
Pennsylvania – Philly Inquirer: Obama 50 Romney 42 (Obama + 8)
Virginia – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Virginia – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Wisconsin – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Florida Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Nelson 52 Mack 39 (Nelson, D + 13)
Nevada Senate – Suffolk: Heller 40 Berkley 37 (Heller, R + 2)
New Mexico Senate – Rasmussen: Heinrich 52 Wilson 39 (Heinrich, D + 13)
Massachusetts Senate – PPP: Warren 50 Brown 44 (Warren, D + 6)
Massachusetts Senate – Rasmussen: Warren 49 Brown 47 (Warren, D + 2)
Michigan Senate – Detroit News: Stabenow 50 Hoekstra 38 (Stabenow + 12)
Ohio Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Brown 52 Mandel 41 (Brown, D + 11)
Pennsylvania Senate – Rasmussen: Casey 49 Smith 45 (Casey, D + 4)
Virginia Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac:: Kaine 51 Allen 44 (Kaine, D + 7)
Virginia Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Kaine 47 Allen 46 (Kaine, D + 1)
Virginia Senate – WeAskAmerica: Kaine 41 Allen 46 (Allen, R + 5)
Wisconsin Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Baldwin 48 Thompson 46 (Baldwin, D + 1)
The Reuters number bears watching – IPSOs polling is a five day rolling average, including some data from today. A bump up for Romney defies other numbers that shows his bounce fading. But tracking polls can be very volatile. Just as Romney shot up from tie to + 3 with Reuters, IBD/TIPP saw Romney fall from + 5 to + 1!
I take “We Ask America” and “Gravis Marketing” polls with a grain of salt – their polls are often outliers, and almost always favoring Republicans. Florida polls need watching – two released today paint very different pictures. Mason Dixon has Romney with a 7 point lead, while Marist has Obama leading by one. Marist had a larger sample and released its information, but Mason-Dixon was simply reported in a paper. I suspect its possible the Mason Dixon poll had more respondents right after the debate when Romney’s bounce was more pronounced. We need more polls to know!
Some question a tweak of Gallup’s polling to increase response rates and to call more cell phones, saying that might be why Obama’s approval has shot up. Yet Gallup and Rasmussen are in virtual agreement on Obama’s approval numbers. The criticism of Gallup comes from the right, claiming this might help Obama’s numbers. Gallup, however, wants to be right, and if it thinks this methodology will improve accuracy, it’s the right thing to do.
October 10, 8:15 PM, Wednesday
Fox News: Obama 45 Romney 46 (Romney + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 44 Romney 49 (Romney + 5)
RAND: Obama 49 Bush 46 (Obama + 3)
Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 44 Romney 45 (Romney + 1)
Yougov: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Florida – UNF: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Maine – Pan Atlantic SMS: Obama 51 Romney 37 (Obama + 14)
Montana – PPP: Obama 41 Romney 52 (Romney + 11)
Nevada – Survey USA: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Nevada – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
New Hampshire – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
New Mexico – Rasmussen: Obama 54 Romney 43 (Obama + 11)
Ohio – Survey USA: Obama 45 Romney 44 (Obama + 1)
Pennsylvania – Rasmussen: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Wisconsin – Rasmussen: Obama 51 Romney 49 (Obama + 2)
Maine Senate – Pan Atlantic SMS: King 50 Summers 24 Dill 12 (King, I + 26)
Montana Senate – PPP: Tester 45 Rehberg 43 (Tester, D + 2)
Nevada Senate – PPP: Heller 47 Berkley 44 (Heller, R + 3)
Nevada Senate – Rasmussen: Heller 48 Berkley 45 (Heller, R + 3)
Ohio Senate – Survey USA: Brown 42 Mandel 38 (Brown, D + 4)
Pennsylvania Senate – Susquehanna: Casey 46 Smith 44 (Casey, D + 2)
Romney seems to be taking a narrow lead in most polls. The Gallup tracking poll, now of likely voters, is tied, up from a Romney lead of 2 yesterday. The old Gallup poll of registered is back to Obama up 5. His approval rating is at 53%. State polls still seem to be leaning Obama, though by narrower margins. The IBD/TIPP poll has Romney expanding his lead from up 2 to up 5.
The IBD/TIPP poll is from October 4 to October 9. Yesterday’s release was from October 3 to October 8th. What this suggests is that the October 3rd numbers (before the debate) were much better for Obama than the October 9th, and Romney gained from the dump of the last pre-debate poll. That means overall IBD/TIPP data, now all post-debate, has Romney up 5. That seems high, but within the margin of error of other polls.
October 9, 5:35 PM, Tuesday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 47 (Romney + 2)
RAND: Obama 447 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 45 Romney 45 (tie)
Colorado – ARG: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
Connecticut – Rasmussen: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Massachusetts – WBUR/MassInc: Obama 52 Romney 36 (Obama + 16)
Minnesota – PPP: Obama 53 Romney 43 (Obama + 10)
Nevada – Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
New Hampshire – WMUR/UNH: Obama 47 Romney 41 (Obama + 6)
North Carolina – Gravis Marketing: Obama 41 Romney 50 (Romney + 9)
North Dakota – Mason Dixon: Obama 40 Romney 54 (Romney + 14)
Ohio – ARG: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Ohio – CNN/Opinion Research: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
Pennsylvania – Siena: Obama 43 Romney 40 (Obama + 3)
Connecticut Senate – Rasmussen: Murphy 51 McMahon 46 (Murphy, D + 5)
Massachusetts Senate – WBUR/Mass Inc: Warren 45 Brown 48 (Brown, R + 3)
North Dakota Senate – Mason Dixon: Berg 47 Heitkamp 47 (tie)
Pennsylvania Senate – Siena: Casey 44 Smith 35 (Casey, D + 9)
Both national polls and state polls remain friendly to Governor Romney. Yesterday’s data, save the PEW poll, suggested Romney’s bump was receding. Today’s polls show it may be resilient. I thought Gallup had a major shift — Obama was up 5 yesterday and now Romney is up 2. But that’s due to the fact they are now reporting likely voters. The registered voter total remains Obama + 3. Still, these polls show the race is now very close.
October 8, 6:50 PM, Monnday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Pew Research: Obama 45 Romney 49 (Romney + 4)
Politico/Battleground/GWU: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
Colorado – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Iowa – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Michigan – EPIC/MRA – Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Michigan – Baydouin/Foster — Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Pennsylvania – Susquehana: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Virginia – PPP: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Florida Senate – Rasmussen: Nelson 52 Mack 41 (Nelson, D + 11)
Virginia Senate – PPP: Kaine 51 Allen 44 (Kaine, D + 7)
Wisconsin Senate – PPP: Baldwin 49 Thompson 46 (Baldwin, D + 3)
The Politico poll showing Obama with a 1 point lead isn’t much different than the poll they released on October 1, which showed Obama with a two point lead. The poll that Romneyworld must be embracing is the Pew Research poll which shows a thirteen point swing of likely voters to Romney since their last poll released September 17. If accurate, that shows first that there are people willing to change their mind — at least 13% have — and that Romney has turned the race on its head with one debate performance. However, at this point it is an outlier, though PEW is a good polling operation — it’s not like this comes from Gravis Marketing!
Polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania again a tight race. Romney not only exceeded expectations in the debate, he may have put to rest claims that debates don’t change minds or are unimportant. This may be seen in retrospect as a game changer.
Gallup has also published a post- and pre- debate set of numbers. Remember, their tracking poll has a 7 day rolling average, meaning it’s hard to know from the overall number what the debate meant. Today they report that the pre-debate polls (Sept. 30 – Oct. 2) give Obama a 5 point lead while the post-debate polls (Oct 4 – 6) show it tied. This would mean a five point swing to Romney. That does not include the data in their tracking poll results today, which have Obama’s lead jumping from 3% to 5% compared to yesterday. So things are still in flux.
Yesterday “WeAskAmerica” showed the Florida Senate race even. I did not believe it. Today Rasmussen, which has a GOP lean, shows Nelson with an 11 point lead.
October 7, 10:30 PM, Sunday
Clarus: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters/IPSOS: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Colorado – University of Colorado: Obama 47 Romney 43 (Obama + 4)
Florida – WeAskAmerica: Nelson 44 Mack 44 (tie)
Massachusetts Senate – Western NE Univ: Warren 50 Brown 45 (Warren, D + 5)
Ohio Senate – Rasmussen: Brown 46 Mandel 46 (tie)
Ohio Senate – WeAskAmerica: Brown 46 Mandel 44 (Brown, D + 2)
The Clarus poll, if you take the data from after the debate, has Romney up one point. The data before the debate showed Obama up four. This could be seen as a five point debate bump for Romney.
I do not trust the Rasmussen and WeAskAmerica polls, which have a history of skewing for the GOP, and can be seen as having a partisan bias. PPP has had quality polls, but it has a Democratic bias. That means that while its poll in Virginia may suggest Obama is still strong, it’s not clear. Nothing is clear from polls out since the debate. I suspect we’ll get a rush of new non-partisan polls in the next two days!
October 6, 9:20 PM, Saturday
Gallup: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Reuters: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Colorado – Gravis Marketing: Obama 46 Romney 49 (Romney + 3)
Wisconsin – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
There’s something about the avalanche of known Republican leaning polls coming right after the debate. It seems part of an attempt to shape the perceptions. On the other hand, Obama supporters should not take too much solace at Gallup’s continued Obama lead — it’s a seven day rolling average, which levels out short term ups and downs. A Romney debate bounce wouldn’t register here right away.
October 5, 1:10 PM, Friday
Gallup: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 46 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 48 Romney 43 (Obama + 5)
Florida – WeAskAmerica: Obama 46 Romney 49 (Romney + 3)
Florida – Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 49 (Romney + 2)
Nevada – Gravis Marketing: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Ohio – Rasmussen: Obama 50 Romney 49 (Obama + 1)
Ohio – WeAskAmerica: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
Virginia – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 49 (Romney + 1)
Virginia – WeAskAmerica: Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
Virginia Senate – Rasmussen: Kaine 52 Allen 45 (Kaine + 7)
The Reuters poll showing a 5% lead was taken after the debate, another one later showed that lead at 2%. I am not sure why there were two polls released, I believe one was a snap post-debate poll, and the other (the 2%) was their traditional poll. The snap poll showed Romney’s favorability ratings improving dramatically.
The WeAskAmerica and Rasmussen polls suggest a bounce for Romney, but before Republicans celebrate too much, both polls have a pronounced pro-Republican “house” effect according to Nate Silver. Pollsters with an agenda coming out quickly after the debate in important swing states have to be taken with a grain of salt. I’m sure in the next few days more evidence will roll in to show if the race is really starting to trend to Romney or not.
October 4, 3:35 PM, Thursday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Missouri – Rasmussen: Romney 49 Obama 46 (Romney + 3)
Connecticut Senate – Rasmussen: McMahon 48 Murphy 47 (McMahon, R + 1)
New Hampshire 1st WMUR/UNH: Shea-Porter 47 Guinta 38 (Shea-Porter, D + 9)
New Hampshire 2nd WMUR/UNH: Kuster 42 Bass 41 (Kuster, D + 1)
The polling is light today as pollsters will try to measure the impact of the debate the next couple days. Post-debate polls show a clear win for Romney, though media and news coverage about his performance was mixed. It should be interesting to see what kind of bounce this gives him, and if it persists. Also, watch Obama’s job approval – in Gallup he was up to 54% approve today, while Rasmussen had it at 49%. We’re at the half way point between the election and when I started this page. Time flies!
October 3, 4:33 PM, Wednesday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
NPR: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 47 Romney 41 (Obama + 6)
Arizona – PPP: Obama 44 Romney 53 (Romney + 9)
Florida – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Missouri – PPP: Obama 45 Romney 51 (Romney + 6)
North Carolina- Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 51 (Romney + 4)
Ohio – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 51 Romney 43 (Obama + 8)
Virginia – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Wisconsin – Marquette: Obama 53 Romney 42 (Obama + 11)
Arizona Senate – PPP: Carmona 45 Flake 43 (Carmona, D + 2)
Florida Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Nelson 52 Mack 41 (Nelson, D + 11)
Missouri Senate – Rasmussen: McCaskill 51 Akin 45 (McCaskill, D + 6)
Missouri Senate – PPP: McCaskill 46 Akin 40 (McCaskill, D + 6)
Ohio Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Brown 50 Mandel 41 (Brown, D + 9)
Virginia Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Kaine 49 Allen 44 (Kaine, D + 5)
Wisconsin Senate: Marquette: Baldwin 48 Thompson 44 (Baldwin, D + 4)
A National Journal poll showing the two tied is listed today in Realclearpolitics. It was released last night so I have it on yesterday’s list of polls. The NPR poll showing Obama up 7 purposefully oversampled from battleground states, but the results were similar between them and the rest of the country. They surveyed 800 likely voters overall. Given the 4% margin of error in the National Journal poll, their sample size must have been about 600.
McCaskill looks up in Missouri again, as the Senate races continue to trend Democratic. Carmona has a surprise lead in the Arizona Senate fight, though Romney still holds a strong lead in that state according to PPP’s newly released polls.
October 2, 9:10 PM, Tuesday
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Quinnipiac: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Reuters/IPSOS: Obama 46 Romney 41 (Obama + 5)
NBC/Wall Street Journal: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
National Journal: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Virginia – Roanoke College: Obama 48 Romney 40 (Obama + 8)
Nevada – WeAskAmerica: Obama 53 Romney 42 (Obama + 11)
Missouri – WeAskAmerica: Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
New Mexico – Rasmussen: Obama 51 Romney 40 (Obama + 11)
Florida: Suffolk/WSVN: Obama 46 Romney 43 (Obama + 3)
North Carolina – Survey USA: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Virginia Senate – Roanoke: Kaine 47 Allen 37 (Kaine + 10)
Nevada Senate – WeAskAmerica: Heller 45 Berkley 45 (tie)
Missouri Senate – WeAskAmerica: McCaskill 46 Akin 45 (McCaskill + 1)
Ohio Senate -PPP: Brown 49 Mandel 41 (Brown, D + 8)
Florida Senate – Suffolk/WSVN: Nelson 40 Mack 34 (Nelson, D + 6)
Lots of polls today. The National Journal poll has the race tied. The poll assumes demographics similar to 2008, with white vote at 74% and African American vote at 11% of the total (in 2012 it was 13%). They assume 8% Latino. The margin of error was 3.7%. That and Rasmussen remain bright spots for Romney, but looking at the polls overall Obama holds a slim lead going into the first debate.
One surprise today is that Missouri is close. Recent polls has seen Obama in striking distance in both Missouri and Arizona. But those remain outliers, unless their internal polls show movement I wouldn’t expect the Obama campaign to put many resources there. I’m skeptical of the Roanake poll putting Obama (and Kaine) up ten.
Missouri looks like a close Senate race. This confirms that Akin’s rape comments were not fatal – expect money to come into his campaign as the Republicans don’t want to blow the chance to pick up a seat, especially when other Senate races are proving tougher than anticipated. I haven’t been listing “blow out” state polls or House races, but there is a Utah poll out showing the Republican Mia Love now leads her opponent by 6%.
October 1, 7:40 PM, Monday
CNN/Opinion Research: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Reuters/IPSOS: Obama 46 Romney 41 (Obama + 5)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
GWU/Battleground/Politico: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
North Carolina – PPP: Obama 48 Romney 48 (tie)
North Carolina – ARG: Obama 46 Romney 50 (Romney + 4)
Florida – Gravis Marketing: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Iowa – WeAskAmerica: Obama 48 Romney 44 (Obama + 4)
Michigan -WeAskAmerica: Obama 52 Romney 40 (Obama + 12)
New Hampshire – WMUR/Granite State: Obama 52 Romney 37 (Obama + 15)
Colorado – WeAskAmerica: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Massachusetts Senate – WBUR/MassInc: Warren 49 Brown 45 (Warren, D + 5)
Ohio Senate – Columbus Dispatch: Brown 49 Mandel 39 (Brown, D +10)
Florida Senate – Gravis Marketing: Nelson 43 Mack 43 (tie)
New Mexico Senate – Rasmussen: Heinrich 52 Wilson 39 (Heinrich, D + 13)
New Mexico Senate – WeAskAmerica: Heinrich 52 Wilson 41 (Heinrich, D + 11)
The polls seem to give a good picture of the race on the eve of the first debate. Obama has a small lead – probably about 3%, and the state polls are tight, but favoring Obama. He seems off his highs of last week.
North Carolina looked to be breaking for Obama, but the ARG poll released today shows Romney up 4. PPP shows the state even, they had put Obama up 1 earlier. The New Hampshire poll is a bit of a shocker. It’s an outlier, but also shows very high enthusiasm among the Democrats.
Warren seems to be maintaining a lead in Massachusetts after a strong debate performance. I don’t believe Gravis Marketing on the Florida Senate (perhaps the Mack campaign is paying for their polling?) It’s a rather pronounced outlier, other recent polls show him up 8, 9, 14 and 14. That makes me wonder if their polling on the Presidential race also has a bias.
September 30, 9:03 PM, Sunday
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama +7)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Iowa – Des Moines Register: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – Columbus Dispatch: Obama 51 Romney 42 (Obama + 9)
Ohio – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Washington – Rasmussen: Obama 52 Romney 41 (Obama + 11)
Maine – Critical Insights: Obama 52 Romney 36 (Obama + 16)
Massachusetts Senate – Boston Globe: Warren 43 Brown 38 (Warren, D + 5)
Maine Senate – Critical Insights: King 50 Summers 28 Dill 12 (King, I + 22)
Gallup shows a slight drop for Obama’s popularity – his job approval has also dropped even more (down to 46% from 50%). Gallup’s job approval numbers are calculated on a three day average, while the Presidential tracking poll is seven days. This means that a further tightening of the race may take place before the first debate. In good news for the Democrats, Obama appears to remain ahead in Ohio, and Warren maintains a lead in the Mass Senate race. PPP shows a significantly closer race than does the Columbus Dispatch. PPP has a solid reputation, I’d trust them more than the Dispatch. The Dispatch did a mail poll, which requires more work to respond. The response rate was higher from Democrats, unlike an earlier mail poll. This suggests Democratic enthusiasm is growing.
September 29, 2:40 PM, Saturday
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Rand continues to show the race tightening again. More evidence that last week may have been a short term reaction to the Romney leaked tapes, rather than Obama pulling away. Yet as other polls seem to tighten, Rasmussen trends slightly to Obama. Gallup is stable at Obama up 6.
September 28, 4:oo PM, Friday
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Reuters/IPSOS: Obama 47 Romney 42 (Obama + 5)
Michigan – Gravis Marketing: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Maine – Rasmussen: Obama 52 Romney 40 (Obama + 12)
Pennsylvania – Morning Call: Obama 49 Romney 42 (Obama + 7)
Virginia – ARG: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
New Hampshire – ARG: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Michigan Senate – Gravis Marketing: Stabenow 54 Hoekstra 40 (Stabenow, D + 14)
Pennsylvania Senate – Morning Call: Casey 44 Smith 36 (Casey, D + 8)
I’m starting to think Gallup is getting the race right. There was a sudden uptick in its polling last week that moved Obama from a one point lead to six. It’s been at six for three days. The state polls flew off the charts for Obama, but now they’re coming back down to earth. He has pulled into a real lead, but closer to 5% up than 8 or 9. Also, Reuters/IPSOs shows a sign of Obama decline, going from a seven point to a five point lead. This has been due to a decline in Obama’s numbers, while Romney has stayed at 42%. Obama’s job approval is also down from a 7% approval advantage (vs. disapproval) to 5%. Small moves, but it could signal a change in the trend.
It feels like a football game where one team leads 24 – 14 at halftime. It’s a nice position to be in, but also dangerous. If you try to sit on the lead it could alter the dynamics of the race. If you keep doing what you’re doing, the other team is sure to make successful adjustments. The challenge to Obamaworld is to keep the momentum as debates begin and Team Romney try to shift the conversation and the focus.
September 27, 9:45 PM, Thursday
RAND tracking: Obama 50 Romney 42 (Obama + 8)
Rasmussen tracking: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
FOX News: Obama 48 Romney 43 (Obama + 5)
Reuters/IPSOS: Obama 49 Romney 42 (Obama + 7)
Virginia – Suffolk/WWBT: Obama 46 Romney 44 (Obama + 2)
Nevada – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49 Romney 47 (Obama + 2)
New Hampshire: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama +7)
North Carolina: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Arizona – Rasmussen: Obama 42 Romney 52 (Romney + 10)
Iowa – TIR: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
Indiana – Howey/DePaul: Obama 40 Romney 52 (Romney + 12)
Connecticut – PPP: Obama 54 Romney 41 (Obama + 13)
Indiana Senate – Howey/DePaul: Donnelly 40 Mourdock 38 (Donnelly, D + 2)
Maine Senate – Rasmussen: King 45 Summers 33 Dill 14 (King, I, + 12)
Nevada Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Heller 49 Berkley 43 (Heller, R + 6)
Virginia Senate – Suffolk/WWBT: Kaine 46 Allen 46 (tie)
Today was a much better set of polls for the Republicans. Obama still leads in the swing states, but the latest batch of NBC/WSJ/Marist polls all show the margin much less than other recent polls (with the exception of New Hampshire). An Iowa poll shows Romney back up by 1, but it was a Republican poll. Still, Romneyworld will take good news where they can get it! Perhaps the best news for the GOP was how the NBC poll again put Heller in the driver’s seat to keep Nevada in Republican hands. In all, today’s polls should allow Republicans to breath a sigh of relief.
The Maine Senate race has been weird. The GOP is taking a hatchet to King in a very negative campaign. I suspect King isn’t likely to caucus with them. Outside conservative groups have been running pro-Dill ads, painting King as too conservative. The polls show Dill steady at 14%, so I don’t think those ads are working. It does seem that the negative ads have cut into Republican support for King.
September 26, 5:50 PM, Wednesday
Bloomberg: Obama 49 Romney 43 (Obama +6)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
RAND Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
Reuters/IPSOS: Obama 49 Romney 43 (Obama + 6)
Florida – Florida Times/InAdv: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Florida – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 53 Romney 44 (Obama + 9)
Ohio – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 53 Romney 43 (Obama +10)
Pennsylvania – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 54 Romney 42 (Obama +12)
Pennsylvania – Franklin&Marshall: Obama 52 Romney 43 (Obama +9)
Iowa – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
Colorado – Gravis Marketing: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Ohio Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Brown 50 Mandel 40 (Brown, D + 10)
Florida Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Nelson 53 Mach 39 (Nelson, D + 14)
Pennsylvania Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Casey 49 Smith 43 (Casey, D +6)
Pennsylvania Senate – FranklinMarshall: Casey 48 Smith 38 (Casey, D + 10)
Arizona Senate – Rasmussen: Flake 47 Carmona 41 (Flake, R + 6)
Connecticut Senate – PPP: Murphy 48 McMahon 42 (Murphy, D + 6)
The early state polls are about as good as it can get for Obama. The Bloomberg poll was landline and cell, reinforces state polling that suggests Obama’s lead is closer to 5%, which is about the gap in 2008. Gallup also now agrees with preponderance of polls and shows a clear Obama lead. Only Rasmussen lags. The only bad news for Democrats in recent polling is that it’s still just September! Why did Gallup change? Remember it runs on a seven day rolling average. That means now all of its data is from after September 17, the day Romney’s leaked tape appeared. There is strong evidence in the changing polls that the tape did significant damage, at least in the short term, to the Romney campaign.
The Arizona Senate race could get interesting. PPP had Flake up only one point two weeks ago, Rasmussen has him up 6. PPP tends to have a Democratic tilt, while Rasmussen leans Republican. It’s still likely to go R, but is worth watching.
September 25, 4:32 PM, Tuesday
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Florida – Washington Post: Obama 51 Romney 47 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – Washington Post: Obama 52 Romney 44 (Obama + 8)
Ohio – Gravis Marketing: Obama 45 Romney 44 (Obama + 1)
Arkansas – Business Talk: Obama 35 Romney 56 (Romney + 21)
New Jersey – Monmouth: Obama 52 Romney 37 (Obama + 15)
Nevada – Retail Assoc/POS: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
Nevada – PPP: Obama 52 Romney 43 (Obama + 9)
Florida Senate – Washington Post: Nelson 54 Mack 40 (Nelson, D +14)
Florida Senate – PPP: Nelson 46 Mack 37 (Nelson, D +9)
Ohio Senate – Gravis Marketing: Brown 44 Mandel 43 (Brown, D + 1)
Ohio Senate – Washington Post: Brown 53 Mandel 41 (Brown, D + 12)
Massachusetts Senate – Rasmussen: Warren 48 Brown 48 (tie)
Nevada Senate – Retail Assoc/POS: Heller 44 Berkeley 39 (Heller, R + 5)
Nevada Senate – PPP: Berkeley 48 Heller 44 (Berkeley, D + 4)
Pennsylvania Senate: Susquehanna: Casey 46 Smith 41 (Casey, D + 5)
Michigan Senate – Rasmussen: Stabenow 53 Hoekstra 37 (Stabenow, D+ 16)
How to make sense of such contradictory polls as those in Nevada or Ohio. First, Ohio: Gravis Marketing has already been cited as a “paid political operation” that is unclear on its methods and assumptions. It’s consistent pro-Republican bias, now shown in Ohio, suggests to me that this outlier poll can be ignored. The Washington Post poll not only has a good reputation, is open about its methodology, but is in line with others. I believe Gravis marketing is trying to manipulate public opinion with biased polling.
In Nevada you have two pollsters who have a partisan lean. PPP leans Democratic, but is a very professional polling organization with a good reputation and record. Public Opinion Strategies is Republican and focused on working for campaigns. Like Gravis, it is paid by the campaigns and likely polls in a way designed to get a result friendly to their clients (at least for polls released to the public). I cannot find info on this survey either, like Gravis they seem secretive. Therefore, while you might want to figure a slight “D” bias for PPP, I think their polling is probably closer to the mark.
September 24: 7:17 PM, Monday
Politico/GWU/Battleground: Obama 50 Romney 47 (Obama + 3)
RAND tracking: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Reuters/IPSOs: Obama 49 Romney 43 (Obama + 6)
Colorado – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Montana – Mason Dixon: Obama 42 Romney 51 (Romney + 9)
Michigan – Rasmussen: Obama 54 Romney 42 (Obama + 12)
Minnesota – Mason Dixon: Obama 48 Romney 40 (Obama + 8)
Wisconsin – Weaskamerica: Obama 53 Romney 41 (Obama + 12)
North Carolina – Civitas: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Nevada – ARG: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
Iowa – ARG: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
Florida – ARG: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Pennsylvania – Mercyhurst: Obama 48 Romney 40 (Obama + 8)
Pennsylvania – Tribune Review: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Nebraska – Omaha World Herald: Obama 39 Romney 53 (Romney + 14)
Wisconsin Senate – Weaskamerica: Baldwin 52 Thompson 40 (Baldwin + 12)
Nebraska Senate – Omaha World Herald: Fisher 56 Kerrey 40 (Fisher, R + 16)
Weaskamerica is not one of the top tier polling outfits, so I’m skeptical Wisconsin is so fully in the grip of Obama and Baldwin, but they are legitimate and the Marquette poll last week showed similar results.
The state of the race: It looks like Obama is opening up a lead with improving polls long after the convention. The state polls are impressive and even the GOP leaning Rasmussen finally shows Obama with a lead. However, there is still ambiguity and Romney supporters can hope that the close polls are correct. We’re entering a phase where Romney has to move forward and show he’s in this race. If not, he’ll need to hope for exogenous factors to intervene. Intrade has the odds of an Obama victory at 72%. At this point it’s hard to disagree.
September 23: 9:04 PM, Sunday
RAND tracking: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Florida – Miami Herald/Mason Dixon: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Florida – PPP: Obama 50 Romney 46 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – Ohio Poll/U Cin: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Montana Senate – Mason Dixon: Rehburg 48 Tester 45 (Rehberg, R + 3)
Pennsylvania Senate – Rasmussen: Casey 49 Smith 42 (Casey, D + 7)
Another light day for polls, but next week I’m sure the 20 + per day reports will come again! Gallup finally moves a bit in favor of Obama, while Denny Rehberg in Montana remains in the lead over the incumbent Democrat Jon Tester in Montana, though it remains close. Gallup’s is a seven day rolling average, which is in principle more stable than Rasmussen’s three day average. There was a spike up in job approval for Gallup as well (which is a three day average) from 46 to 51.
Florida remains close. The range there has been between Romney + 1 and Obama + 5. I suspect the reality is in the middle of that range.
September 22: 1:05 PM, Saturday
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Florida Senate – Miami Herald: Nelson 48 Mack 40 (Nelson, D +8)
A slower day in polls than the past few. The Florida Senate poll again shows that Nelson is pulling away. The state of the Senate races is shifting. Republicans are currently expected to lose Maine and are in danger in toss ups Massachusetts Nevada and Indiana. The Democrats are likely to lose Nebraska (I haven’t seen polls of that race since May, so it would be nice to verify this), and are in danger in toss ups North Dakota, Montana and Connecticut. They appear on the rise to hold Wisconsin and Virginia. The Senate could go either way, but the polls right now are kind to the Democrats.
September 21: 6:02 PM, Friday
National Journal: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 45 (Obama + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Reason/Rupe: Obama 52 Romney 45 (Obama + 7)
RAND: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
New Mexico – Yougov: Obama 53 Romney 41 (Obama + 12)
Ohio – Yougov: Obama 47 Romney 44 (Obama + 3)
Ohio – Purple Strategies: Obama 48 Romney 44 (Obama + 4)
Pennsylvania – Yougov: Obama 51 Romney 42 (Obama + 9)
Pennsylvania – Rasmussen: Obama 51 Romney 39 (Obama + 12)
California – PPIC: Obama 53 Romney 39 (Obama + 14)
Georgia – Insider Advantage: Romney 56 Obama 35 (Romney + 21)
Georgia – Yougov: Obama 44 Romney 50 (Romney + 6)
North Carolina – High point: Obama 48 Romney 44 (Obama + 4)
North Carolina – Purple Strategies: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Florida – Purple Strategies: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Virginia – Purple Strategies: Obama 46 Romney 43 (Obama + 3)
Colorado – Purple Strategies: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Arizona – Purple Strategies: Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
Arizona – Yougov: Obama 41 Romney 51 (Romney + 10)
Wisconsin Senate – Rasmussen: Baldwin 49 Thompson 46 (Baldwin, D +3)
Wisconsin Senate – PPP: Baldwin 49 Thompson 45 (Baldwin, D + 5)
Today sees two more national polls showing Obama with a seven point lead. With all due respect to the tracking polls, I think we’re looking at a race where Obama has pulled out to a real lead, albeit it still within striking distance of Romney. But Romney has done nothing to indicate he’s the kind of candidate who can turn this around without some kind of “October surprise.”
The state polls show a close race. Purple Strategies is Alex Castellanos’ outfit, and he’s a GOP strategist. Yet their polls have good news for Obama in two races. Arizona is in striking distance of Obama — that’s something surprising — and Obama leads in North Carolina. The good news for Romney is that they have him leading in Florida.
September 20: 7:00 PM, Thursday
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 47 (tie)
Reuters/IPSOS: Obama 48 Romney 43 (Obama + 5)
RAND: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Yougov: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Colorado – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Colorado – Yougov: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Nevada – CNN/ORC: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Iowa – Rasmussen: Obama 44 Romney 47 (Romney + 3)
Iowa – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50 Romney 42 (Obama + 8)
Iowa – Yougov: Obama 48 Romney 42 (Obama + 6)
Michigan – Detroit News: Obama 52 Romney 38 (Obama + 14)
Florida – WeAskAmerica: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Florida – Youguv: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Virginia – Yougov: Obama 48 Romney 44 (Obama + 4)
Pennsylvania – WeAskAmerica: Obama 48 Romney 42 (Obama + 6)
Nevada – Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 45 (Obama + 2)
Nevada – Yougov: Obama 51 Romney 43 (Obama + 8)
New Hampshire: Yougov: Obama 47 Romney 40 (Obama + 7)
North Carolina – Yougov: Obama 46 Romney 46 (tie)
Wisconsin – PPP: Obama 52 Romney 45 (Obama + 7)
Wisconsin – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Wisconsin – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Wisconsin – Yougov: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Florida Senate – WeAskAmerica: Nelson 47 Mack 42 (Nelson, D + 5)
Massachusetts Senate – Boston Herald: Brown 49 Warren 45 (Brown, R + 4)
Nevada Senate – Rasmussen: Heller 42 Berkeley 41 (Heller, R, +1)
Michigan Senate – Detroit News: Stabenow 50 Hoekstra 34 (Stabenow, D + 16)
Wisconsin Senate – NBC/WSJ/Marist: Baldwin 48 Thompson 46 (Baldwin, D + 2)
Gallup finally looks better for Romney than does Rasmussen! This is not necessarily good news for Romney. Rasmussen has a three day moving average, while Gallup goes with seven days. That means Rasmussen may be indicating damage from the Romney video tapes. Whether it’s long term or short term damage time will tell.
Rasmussen and NBC/WSJ/Marist disagree significantly on Iowa. The state polls generally look better for Obama than the general polls, which is odd (though Rasmussen’s state polls are the most friendly to Romney). The state polls are more in line with what one would expect from the polling out of PEW, Reuters/IPSOs or NBC/WSJ. I guess we just have to keep gathering data! Although some state polls show Obama with a smaller lead, or even Romney ahead, the preponderance suggest Obama is clearly leading throughout the swing states.
The Herald poll breaks the trend showing the Massachusetts Senate race shifting to Warren. Rasmussen shows a very close Nevada Senate race; this is a seat Republicans have been counting on holding. Yet another poll show Baldwin leading (albeit slightly) in Wisconsin.
September 19: 8:12 PM, Wednesday
Pew Research: Obama 51 Romney 43 (Obama + 8)
Gallup: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
AP/Gfk: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama +1)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
Ohio – Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 42 (Obama + 7)
Michigan – CNN: Obama 52 Romney 44 (Obama + 8)
Florida – Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama +5)
Colorado – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama + 1)
Virginia – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Virginia – FOX news: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
Wisconsin – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 51 Romney 45 (Obama + 6)
Wisconsin – Marquette: Obama 54 Romney 40 (Obama + 14)
Virginia – WeAskAmerica: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
New Hampshire – Rasmussen: Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
Maine – MPRC – Obama 54 Romney 37 (Obama + 17)
Maine – PPP: Obama 55 Romney 39 (Obama + 16)
Ohio Senate – FOX News: Brown 47 Mandel 40 (Brown, D + 7)
Florida Senate – FOX News: Nelson 49 Mack 35 (Nelson, D + 14)
Massachusetts – WBUR/Massinc: Warren 47 Brown 42 (Warren, D + 5)
Virginia Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Kaine 51 Allen 44 (Kaine, D + 7)
Virginia Senate – Washington Post: Kaine 51 Allen 43 (Kaine, D + 8)
Virginia Senate – FOX news: Kaine 47 Allen 43 (Kaine, D + 4)
Wisconsin Senate – CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Baldwin 47 Thompson 47 (tie)
Wisconsin Senate – Marquette: Baldwin 50 Thompson 41 (Baldwin, D + 9)
Connecticut Senate – UConn/Hartford Courant: Murphy 37 McMahon 33 (Murphy, D, + 4)
Maine Senate – MPRC — King 44 Summers 28 Dill 15 (King, I + 16)
Maine Senate – PPP: King 43 Summers 35 Dill 14 (King I + 8)
We’ve had contradictory polls about the state of the overall race. Many polls show a very tight one or two point race, while Pew today shows Obama with an 8 point lead, and a few recent polls had Obama up 5 or 6. Pew is a very good organization with a strong track record so it’s hard to dismiss their poll. Still, my gut says that the race is closer to that. Nate Silver’s analysis shows that polls that include live interviewers and cell phones — ones considered more accurate — have Obama faring better than “robo-call” polls.
In state polls the news is pretty good for Obama. Wisconsin and Virginia are trending Obama, though I cannot believe the 14 point margin for Obama in Wisconsin in the Marquette poll. The FOX news polls out of Ohio, Virginia and Florida contain especially bad news for Romney. But Romney can take solace in his strong performances in New Hampshire and Colorado – Rasmussen has him up in New Hampshire.
Senate polls show hopes decline for the GOP to win the Senate. The Wisconsin Senate race is interesting. Tammy Baldwin was not expected to be a strong challenger to Tommy Thompson. If she’s elected she’d be the first openly gay Senator. Wisconsin native and political analyst Dr. James Melcher notes that Thompson is doing little campaigning and may be exhausted from the hard primary fight. If Baldwin can win, that further hurts GOP chances of winning the Senate in a year where Democrats are defending 23 seats vs. 10 for the GOP. I can’t believe she’s up by 9 (again, the Marquette poll is out of step with others), but other polls recently show her close or ahead. It’s a race the Republicans counted on.
Strong numbers for Kaine in Virginia suggest that Virginia may indeed be turning blue. Obama is way ahead in two polls in Maine (not surprising), but the Senate fight is closer in the PPP poll than most expect. If King is ahead by only eight by this point — a good lead, to be sure — the Republicans can still hope to split the opposition and hold that seat. Connecticut remains close as well. The Senate races are trending so Democratic lately that the election is starting to look like it could be a reversal of 2010 — but there is still a lot of time and the races are getting interesting!
September 18: 7:40 PM, Tuesday
NBC News/WSJ: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Gallup: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
IPSOS/Reuters: Obama 48 Romney 43 (Obama + 5)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 47 (Romney + 2)
Pennsylvania – Morning Call: Obama 50 Romney 41 (Obama + 9)
Virginia – Washington Post: Obama 52 Romney (Obama + 8)
Colorado – Rasmussen: Obama 45 Romney 47 (Romney + 2)
Michigan – MRG – Obama 48 Romney 42 (Obama + 6)
Oregon – Survey USA – Obama 49 Romney 40 (Obama + 9)
Florida – Gravis Marketing: Obama 47 Romney 48 (Romney + 1)
Michigan Senate – MRG: Stabenow 46 Hoekstra 40 (Stabenow, D + 6)
Virginia Senate – PPP – Kaine 47 Allen 46 (Kaine, D + 1)
Massachusetts Senate – Suffolk/7 News: Warren 48 Brown 44 (Warren, D + 4)
Florida Senate – Gravis Marketing: Nelson 42 Mack 43 (Mack, R + 1)
Pennsylvania Senate – Morning Call – Casey 45 Smith 33 (Casey, D + 12)
New Jersey Senate – Philly Inquirer: Menendez 43 Kyrillos 32 (Menendez, D + 11)
We’ve reached an interesting point in the campaign. Gallup is back to where the race was before the conventions, making Rasmussen’s numbers more believable. That said, one has to think the race leans Obama, especially given both the Reuters and NBC/WSJ polls which show Obama with a five point lead.
It appears that Obama has a small lead, with Romney positioned to try to launch one more offensive. Yet Team Romney is on the defensive, due to stories of infighting and yesterday’s leaked video with sound bites that could be very damaging. The polls the next week or so might really say a lot about where this campaign is going! The Post poll showing Obama way up in Virginia is interesting – Virginia may be set to become a blue state overall due to demographic changes. Colorado, on the other hand, appears to remain a toss up.
A number of polls verify that Warren has taken the lead in Massachusetts so that race seems to have turned around. I mentioned awhile back that Gravis Marketing had come out with polls skewed to the Republicans, and that they are a “for hire” firm, unclear about their methods. Even Rasmussen has Nelson up 7 for the Florida Senate, so I’m putting the Gravis polls in here with a sense that they are probably not worthy of much attention. But you can be the judge of that!
September 17 – 6:25 PM, Monday
Monmoth/Survey USA: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 47 (Romney + 2)
Wisconsin – PPP: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama +1)
Kentucky – Survey USA – Obama 39 Romney 53 (Romney + 14)
Massachusetts Senate – PPP: Warren 48 Brown 46 (Warren, D + 2)
Virginia Senate – Rasmussen: Kaine 47, Allen 45 (Kaine, D + 2)
Wisconsin Senate – PPP: Baldwin 48 Thompson 45 (Baldwin, D + 3)
Recent polls show a shift towards Democratic candidates in Senate races. making it more likely the Democrats will hold the upper chamber. This suggests that the convention bounce may have down ticket legs.
So why the difference between Gallup and Rasmussen? First, it’s been persistent, so clearly there is something in the methodology of the polls that tilt Rasmussen more towards Romney. I suspect that Rasmussen has a lower enthusiasm level for Democrats incorporated in his method. There is some evidence for doing that (though it seems to be changing), but that might account for him having Romney doing better than the others. Given the bump in job approval ratings for Obama in both Rasmussen and Gallup (he’s hitting 50%), I think Obama still maintains a small lead.
The state polls have been pretty good for Obama, though Wisconsin is emerging is tight.
September 16 – 11:38 PM, Sunday
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Michigan – Baydoun/Foster: Obama 46 Romney 44 (Obama + 2)
Virginia – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Obama + 5)
Michigan – Baydoun/Foster: Stabenow 47 Hoekstra 42 (Stabenow + 5)
Florida Senate: Rasmussen: Nelson 47 Mack 40 (Nelson, D + 7)
Massachusetts Senate – Western NE U: Warren 50 Brown 44 (Warren, D + 6)
Potentially big in the battle for the Senate is a turn around in Massachusetts putting Elizabeth Warren out comfortably ahead of Scott Brown. Until now the polls have been showing Brown holding a small to moderate lead. The margin of error is over 4%, and at this point the poll has to be treated as an outlier. I’ll believe the race has shifted to Warren’s advantage only when it’s verified by more polls.
Mixed news for Obama in the state polls. The Michigan poll shows the state much closer than the ten point margin EPIC/MRA had a couple days ago. One of these polls is wrong (or perhaps they both are). If Obama is up five in Virginia, that’s bad news for Mitt – winning Virginia is a part of most of his paths to the White House.
September 15 – 2:35 PM, Saturday
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 48 (Romney +2)
Pennsylvania – Philadelphia Inquirer: Obama 50 Romney 39 (Obama +11)
New Jersey – Philadelphia Inquirer: Obama 51 Romney 37 (Obama + 14)
Ohio Senate – Rasmussen Reports: Brown 49 Mandel 41 (Brown, D + 8)
Good news for Obama from Pennsylvania. Rasmussen and Gallup still disagree on the state of the race. Both agree that he enjoys a relatively good job approval number of 49% (though Rasmussen has higher disapprovals than Gallup). In 2008 I noticed that Rasmussen was consistently erring on the side of Republicans (or McCain) until right before the end. Pollsters do adjust their methodology based on who they think likely to vote. Gallup in 2008 experimented with two different models and published both (high turnout vs. expected). I suspect Rasmussen might have more Republican-friendly assumptions that get modified right before the election (keeping his reputation in tact).
September 14 – 10:20 PM, Friday
CBS/NYT: Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama + 3)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
North Carolina – Rasmussen: Obama 45 Romney 51 (Romney + 6)
Virginia – Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Rasmussen still defies the other polls and shows Romney strong. I don’t buy it, at least not until we see other polls showing something similar. I also don’t buy the Reuters lead yesterday for Obama at 7%. Ultimately this election is probably going have a three or four point spread at the most, which means a variety of diverse outcomes are within the margin of error. It’s interesting that the Intrade odds are up to 66% odds of an Obama victory.
September 13 – 7:50 PM, Thursday
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48 Romney 41 (Obama + 7)
Rasmussen Tracking – Obama 46 Romney 47 (Romney + 1)
Gallup Tracking – Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Democracy Corps – Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Virginia: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama +5)
Florida: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Ohio: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
New Hampshire: WMUR/UNH: Obama 45 Romney 40 (Obama + 5)
Colorado – New America Project: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Ohio – Rasmussen: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Minnesota – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
Florida – Rasmussen: Obama 48 Romney 46 (Obama + 2)
Florida – AIF/McLaughlin: Obama 47 Romney 50 (Romney + 2)
Michigan – EPIC/MRA – Obama 47 Romney 37 (Obama + 10)
Missouri – Rassmussen – Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
California – Survey USA – Obama 57 Romney 35 (Obama + 22)
New York – Quinnipiac – Obama 62 Romney 34 (Obama + 28)
Virginia Senate: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Allen 46 Kaine 46 (tie)
Ohio Senate: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Brown 49 Mandel 42 (Brown, D + 7)
Florida Senate: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Nelson 51 Mack 37 (Nelson, D + 14)
Michigan Senate – EPIC/MRA – Stabenow 49 Hoekstra 38 (Stabenow, D + 11)
Rasmussen shows Obama’s bounce gone, but Gallup shows him maintaining a six point lead. At this point I don’t think Rasmussen’s number is convincing, we need polls to verify it. Democracy Corps is closer to Gallup, but it’s a Democratic pollster so that’s not enough. Reuters shows Obama with a seven point lead. Rasmussen is an outlier.
A series of state polls today tend to suggest Obama is doing very good in swing states. About the McLaughlin poll showing Romney leading Florida by 3 – I’m a bit dubious. It’s a Republican pollster and I can’t find details about the poll. Moreover, they seem to be leaking out bits of info from a more in depth set of polls they did in Florida. Rasmussen, which also tends to lean Republican, shows Obama with a small Florida lead. Rasmussen also indicates Missouri is in play for Obama. Obama is clearly favored, but Romney is within striking distance. The NBC polls seem very positive for Obama.
The polls of Senate races also show Democratic strength, with Virginia a toss up. If Ohio and Florida stay Democratic, as seems likely, the Senate focus shifts to Connecticut, Virginia, Montana, Wisconsin and Nevada. At this point polls are friendly to the Democrats.
September 12 – 7:02 PM, Wednesday
Fox News: Obama 48 Romney 43 (Obama + 5)
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Rassmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 45 (Obama + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 43 (Obama + 7)
New Mexico: PPP Obama 53 Romney 42 (Obama + 11)
Montana: PPP Obama 45 Romney 50 (Romney + 5)
Texas: WPA Obama 40 Romney 55 (Romney + 15)
Missouri Senate – Rasmussen: McCaskill 49 Akin 43 (McCaskill, D + 6)
New Mexico Senate – PPP: Heinrich 50 Wilson 41 (Heinrich, D + 9)
Montana Senate – PPP: Tester 45 Rehberg 40 (Tester, D + 5)
Montana at large: PPP: Daines 40 Gillan 37 (Daines, R + 3)
Rasmussen’s poll, if accurate, would suggest the Obama bounce was fleeting. Rasmussen is known to have a Republican bias, so this needs to be verified by other polls. Gallup shows Obama actually widening his lead to seven points. However, Rasmussen’s narrow race is in line with results from ABC/Washington Post yesterday, so more polls are needed to feel confident about the size/reality of the Obama lead. Both Rasmussen and Gallup keep Obama job approval at 51%.
State polls are interesting. New Mexico looks strong for Obama, but Romney has a surprisingly narrow lead in Montana. This poll also shows Tester reviving and leading in keeping his Senate seat, and a rather surprisingly close race for the at large Congressional seat. PPP tends to lean Democratic, so I take this with a grain of salt. However, if this is true, there could be movement down ticket towards the Democrats that might even put the House in play. As polling expands to house races, we have to keep our eyes on the dynamics of the entire election cycle.
Reuters/Ipsos has Obama leading by 3%, but in the generic Congressional ballot the Democrats are up 6. Obama’s not pulling away, but the feel is definitely towards the Democrats.
September 11 – 9:47 PM, Tuesday
Washington Post/ABC – Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 44 (Obama + 6)
Minnesota: KSTP/Survey USA: Obama 50 Romney 40 (Obama + 10)
Massachusetts – Kimball: Obama 56 Romney 40 (Obama + 16)
Arizona: PPP Obama 44 Romney 53 (Romney + 9)
Illinois – We Ask America: Obama54 Romney 37 (Obama + 14)
Florida – Survey USA: Obama 48 Romney 44 (Obama + 4)
Massachusetts Senate – Kimball: Brown 46 Warren 45 (Brown, R + 1)
Ohio Senate – PPP: Brown 48 Mandel 40 (Brown, D + 8)
Arizona Senate – PPP: Flake 44 Carmona 43 (Flake, R + 1)
Florida Senate – Survey USA: Nelson 47 Mack 36 (Nelson, D + 11)
Poll of unknown quality (explanation at the bottom of the day’s comments):
Ohio: Gravis Marketing – Obama 47 Romney 43 (Obama + 4)
Virginia: Gravis Marketing – Obama 44 Romney 49 (Romney + 5)
Virginia Senate: Gravis Marketing: Kaine (D) 43 Allen (R) 48 (Allen, R + 5)
Ohio Senate: Gravis Marketing: Brown 48 Mandel 42 (Brown, D + 6)
The Post/ABC poll, done completely after the conventions suggests this remains a close race, with Obama up 1. Rasmussen’s tracking poll has also tightened to only a three point lead for Obama, so some of the convention bounce seems to be dissipating. Obama rises a tick in Gallup today, but remember – they use a seven day rolling average so any bounce might dissipate more slowly. Rasmussen does show Obama’s approval staying at 52%, higher than any time since September 2009. He remains at 50% approval in Gallup (approval numbers for Gallup reflect three days of data). That guarantees nothing, but for Obama that’s good news. There is nothing surprising about the Minnesota and Massachusetts polls.
The difference between yesterday’s CNN poll and today’s ABC poll is less significant than it might appear. One has Obama up by 6, the other by only 1. The polls were each taken in roughly the same time period. The margin of error for the ABC poll is 4.5%, for CNN it is 3.5%. That simply means 95% of the time the result will fit somewhere on a bell curve with a large range. The result of each poll falls within that margin of error. That’s why one shouldn’t make too much out of any one poll – we need to look at a variety to get a real sense of what seems to be happening.
Not sure if the Massachusetts Senate race has tightened as much as the Kimball poll suggests – more data is needed. Also SurveyUSA (not the most dependable of polls) shows Nelson pulling away from Mack in the Florida Senate race. That result seems too friendly to the Democrat, though the 4 point Obama lead is similar what they found in the past. More data on the Florida Senate race is needed.
Gravis Marketing: I’m not sure what to make of their polls, they seem relatively new. From their own website they specialize in robocalls and other forms of “communication,” which make them sort of a political ‘hired gun.’ Who pays for their polls? There is speculation that a number of polls are used to try to influence results of polling averages. Gravis seems to give a consistent spin towards the Republicans in all polls I can find — almost all their polls seem to be outliers. My instinct is not to trust them until other polls verify their results. We’ll have lots of polls in the coming weeks!
September 10 – 4:33 PM, Sunday
CNN/Opinion Research: Obama 52 Romney 46 (Obama + 6)
IBD/CSM/TIPP: Obama 46 Romney 44 (Obama + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama + 5)
Reuters/IPSOS: Obama 47 Romney 43 (Obama + 4)
Ohio – PPP – Obama 50 Romney 45 (Obama +5)
New Mexico – Albuquerque Journal – Obama 45 Romney 40 (Obama +5)
North Carolina – PPP – Obama 49 Romney 48 (Obama + 1)
North Carolina – Survey USA – Romney 53 Obama 43 (Romney + 10)
National tracking polls seem to agree on the state of the race. President Obama has a clear lead of about 5%, and received a convention bounce of probably around 4 or 5%. The first CNN/Opinion Research snapshot poll shows Obama up by 6, with 52% support. These polls suggest the President is the clear leader going into the make or break phase of the campaign.
There is a poll with good news for Romney. IBD/CSM/TIPP has Obama up only two. The The new polls out have different methods, which may impact the results. CNN/Opinion Research results focus on likely voters, while the IBD/CSM/TIPP data is simply registered voters. TIPP data comes from September 4 -9, while CNN is only Sept 7 – 9. This means CNN probably has a fuller picture of the “bounce.” In the past Obama has fared better with all registered voters than likely voters, though that gap has narrowed. All we can say for sure is that Obama certainly has some kind of lead.
State polls released after the conventions show Obama leading in the important swing states of Ohio and New Mexico. Two polls vary widely on North Carolina. PPP shows Obama with a one point lead, Survey USA gives Romney a ten point lead. PPP surveyed only likely voters, while Survey USA did registered voters. PPP data was gathered after the Democratic convention, while Survey USA was gathered during the convention. Survey USA has a smaller sample and a 4.5% margin of error. PPP has a 3% margin of error and its results are similar to earlier North Carolina results that same polling company had. So if I had to guess, I’d say North Carolina is still Romney territory, but it’s probably much closer than Survey USA would suggest.
September 9 – 10:45, Saturday
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 44 (Obama + 5)
Reuters/Ipsos Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 43 (Obama +4)
Gallup, Rasmussen and Reuters/Ipsos agree that Obama enjoyed a decent convention bounce (four or five points). As we move into the dog days of the campaign, Obama and the DNC had the better convention success. This also puts Romney in a difficult position as an underdog having to make up ground. He requires a solid set of debate performances to convince the American people he should be chosen.
Although more polls are needed to know for sure, I suspect this is about as big a bump as the President will get from the conventions – he isn’t moving into “uncatchable” territory, but he does have an advantage.
September 8 – 7:25 PM, Friday
Rassmussen Tracking: Obama 46 Romney 44 (Obama + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Obama + 4)
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 47 Romney 43 (Obama +4)
All three tracking polls agree that there has been an Obama bounce. Obama has gained three points in Gallup’s tracking poll over the last two days. It’s a seven day rolling average, so less than half of the data has a convention impact. Ramussen’s jump for Obama is similar, but his is a three days data. Reuters-Ipsos also shows about a four point bump. For job approval Obama remains at 52% with Gallup, the highest since May 2011 after Osama Bin Laden was killed.
September 7 – 11:15 PM, Thursday
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 46 (Romney + 1)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 45 (Obama + 3)
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama 46 Romney 44 (Obama + 2)
Polls out Friday morning show that Obama may be getting a slight bump from the convention. The Gallup tracking poll changed for the first time in ten days, with Obama increasing his lead from 1 to 3 points. This is a seven day rolling average, so if it is a bump it could be significant — all of the data is from after the GOP convention, but more than half comes from before the DNC even started. While Romney’s lead with Rasmussen also dropped, it’s too early to know if that’s real or the result of statistical noise. Still, with Ipsos/Reuters showing Obama in a slight lead, there is evidence of a slight bounce.
For Gallup, Obama’s job approval jumped to 52% – during the RNC it was down to 43% one day. It’s not been above 50% much at all. Whether this is an anomaly or not is still unclear. Rasmussen does not show a similar increase in job approval.
September 6, 2012 – Udated: 6:01 PM, Wednesday
New Jersey – Quinnipiac – Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 44 Romney 47 (Romney +3)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 44 Romney 45 (Romney +1)
Rasmussen seems stable with Romney up 2 or 3 before the convention. Gallup has had Obama up 1. Those will be good tracking poll benchmarks to see if Obama gets a bounce. The Gallup poll has been exactly the same nine days in a room. Gallup shows no Romney bounce, we’ll see if the DNC helps Obama. Good news for Romney supporters, so far no one has recorded an Obama bounce — though the data really only includes reaction after the first day – more time is needed. No surprise from the New Jersey poll, that should be a safe Obama state.
September 5, 2012, (Update 1:58 PM), Wednesday
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 48 (Romney + 3)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama + 1)
There may not be many polls while the DNC is taking place, but the daily tracking polls will appear. Rasmussen shows Romney holding a small lead, a result consistent with their polling averages over the last few weeks. For the 8th day in a row Gallup remains at the exact same place, Obama ahead 47-46. Five days of data comes post-RNC, so it seems safe to conclude that Gallup sees no Romney bounce.
Also, after meandering down around 43 – 46% job approval, with disapproval higher, Obama’s at 47% approval and disapproval in the Gallup poll. That’s not good, but given the attacks at the RNC, it can’t be heartening to the Romney campaign that his numbers have increased rather than decreased in the aftermath!
September 4, 2012: (Updated – 4:00 PM), Tuesday
Michigan – PPP: Obama 51 Romney 44 (Obama + 7)
Michigan Senate – PPP: Stabenow (D) 50 Hoekstra (R) 41 (Stabenow +9)
Florida Senate: PPP: Nelson (D) 45 Mack (R) 38 (Nelson + 7)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 45 Romney 47 (Romney + 2)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama +1)
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 45 Romney 46 (Romney + 1)
CNN: Obama 48 Romney 48 (even)
More evidence that Romney didn’t get much if any of a bounce. The Florida Senate poll shows Nelson remains favored for re-election. It is a seat the GOP considers potentially vulnerable, but it may be drifting out of reach. Stabenow remains strongly favored in the Michigan Senate race.
Rasmussen’s tracking poll cut Romney’s lead from 4 points to 2, about where he was pre-convention. Gallup continues to show no bounce, a one point 47-46 lead for Obama. It’s been at that point for a week. CNN’s poll is virtually the same among likely voters as their poll before the GOP convention, again suggesting no bounce for Romney. That suggests a stable race going into the Democratic convention. Some good news for Obama: among registered voters Obama holds a significant lead of seven points. All he has to do is get them to go to the polls!
September 3, 2012 (Update: 9:48 PM): Monday
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 44 Romney 48 (Romney +4)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama +1)
Colorado: PPP – Obama 49 Romney 46 (Obama +3)
Florida: PPP – Obama 48 Romney 47 (Obama +1)
North Carolina: PPP – Obama 48 Romney 48 (even)
North Carolina: Elon U/Charolotte Observer – Romney 47 Obama 43 (Romney +4)
North Carolina: High Point/Survey USA – Romney 46 Obama 43 (Romney + 3)
Both North Carolina and Florida are essentially too close to call. PPP’s numbers for Romney in Florida are better than some recent polls, but if North Carolina is so close – a state that many think is leaning Romney – there may not have been a convention bump for Romney. Colorado also shows Obama up 3, which is exactly where he was pre-convention.
One thing about the North Carolina polls. The Elon U/Charolotte Observer poll shows McCrory, the Republican, with a 15% lead for the Governor’s race. PPP shows the lead at only 6%. The polls have averaged about a 7% lead for McCrory. That suggests that the Elon poll may err on the side of the GOP. On the other hand, it’s NC lead for Romney i.s matched by the High Point/Survey USA poll. The High Point U. poll had a smaller sample and polled all voters. The others polled likely voters.
Romney’s four point lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll stayed steady, but it’s still to early to label it a bump – we need to see more polls (Romney has had leads up to 5% in that poll even before the convention). Gallup remained steady with the same one point Obama lead, now 6 straight days. Almost half their data is now from after the convention. The polls still look much like they did before the GOP convention.
Bottom line: if Romney did have a bounce, it was very weak, and to me the evidence suggests he did not. It could be that in an election this partisan conventions mean less than they used to. We’ll see how Obama fares after the DNC this week.
September 2, 2012: Update: (7:45 PM) Sunday
Gallup: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama +1)
Rasmussen: Obama 44 Romney 48 (Romney + 4)
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 45 Romney 45 (even)
Gallup has been very consistent, their last 5 days has seen that same 1 point lead for Obama, before that they had two days with Romney having a one point lead. It’s too early to say they detect no bounce though – we’re not sure about the daily data being dumped and added, and theirs is a seven day rolling average. Rasmussen seems to show a bump, but he’s often had Romney up 4 before the convention, so it’s too early to know if this is statistical noise that will revert to the mean, or if it’s a real bounce. Rasmussen’s data is all post-convention, however. Reuters-Ipsos has the race even. Yesterday Obama had a one point lead, but the day before Romney was up 1. Reuter’s methodology is also designed specifically to see if there is a convention bump. So far, there is no convention bounce detected, but it’s early.
September 1, 2012, Sunday
Gallup: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Obama +1)
Rasmussen: Obama 44 Romney 47 (Romney + 3)
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 43 Romney 42 (Obama +1)
Reuters-Ipsos (which uses a credibility interval) has more undecideds. So far there are no clear trends and much of the data in these tracking polls comes from before or during the GOP convention, meaning that while there is no sign yet of a “Romney bounce,” it’s still too early to tell. The tracking polls have shown a very close race, as have the “snaphot” polls released before the convention. It’s been quiet on the polling front as pollsters waited until the close of the GOP convention before starting a new batch of interviews. That should change soon!
World in Motion 
#1 by The Scarecrow on September 18, 2012 - 04:18
Either the media are fking with us (and they are) or this is one hell of a coincidence. Neck and neck? But that would mean America thinks…they both suck?