2016 Polls!

As of 9-19-2016 this page will not be updated.  It takes too much time and there are many websites with polls, including hyper links to the polls, etc.  Try: RCP polls,  or those at fivethrityeight.com.

September 18, 2016 – Sunday

LA Times/USC Tracking:  Trump 48, Clinton 41 (Trump + 7)
Morning Consult:  Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 8, Stein 3 (Clinton + 2)

Minnesota (Mason-Dixon): Clinton 44, Trump 38, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Clinton + 6)
Pennsylvania (Morning Call): Clinton 40, Trump 32, Johnson 14, Stein 5 (Clinton + 8)

September 17, 2016 – Saturday

LA Times/USC Tracking:  Trump 47, Clinton 41 (Trump + 6)
CVoter tracking:  Trump 48, Clinton 47 (Trump + 1)

Ipsos released a number of state polls; many states have sample sizes that are very small, so take the numbers with a grain of salt.  (Comment below)

States Trump leads: Texas + 23, Florida + 4, Arizona + 7, Colorado + 3, Tennessee + 23, Indiana + 20, Missouri + 18, Georgia + 8, Iowa + 9, Montana + 13, South Carolina + 7, Mississippi + 14, West Virginia + 10, Utah + 19, Oklahoma + 21, Nebraska + 19, Alabama + 13, Arkansas + 10, New Mexico + 5, Kentucky + 19, Nevada + 4, Idaho + 24, Louisiana + 20, Kansas + 11.

States Clinton Leads:  Illinois + 15, California + 38, Virginia + 10, New York + 23, Ohio + 4, Pennsylvania + 2, Wisconsin + 3, Washington + 10, Massachusetts + 22, Minnesota + 10, Maryland + 24, New Jersey + 15, North Carolina + 3, New Hampshire + 10, Oregon + 3, Connecticut + 10, Delaware + 15.

Tie:  Maine, Michigan

Clinton falling behind in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida is troubling news for Democrats.  BUT the sample size for New Mexico was 141, which is way too small to take too seriously compared to other polls. Nevada was 293, Colorado was 491.    Anything under 400 can’t be taken too seriously, it’s best to have at least 700.   But while this shows a very close race, the states Clinton leads in are enough to give her the electoral college (adding in certain Democratic states like Hawaii and DC).   That shows that Clinton does still control a solid block of “blue” states, and she still is the favorite.  But these polls have been moving towards Trump and anything can happen.

September 16, 2016 – Friday

Fox News:  Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 8, Stein 3  (Clinton + 1)
LA Times/USC Tracking: Trump 47, Clinton 41 (Trump + 6)
Ipsos:  Clinton 42, Trump 39, Johnson 7 (Clinton + 3)
CVoter:  Trump 48, Clinton 47 (Trump + 1)

Colorado (Emerson):  Trump 42, Clinton 38, Johnson 13, Stein 3 (Trump + 4)
Florida (GSG):  Clinton 46, Trump 43 (Clinton + 3)
Ohio (Onmessage):  Clinton 42, Trump 42, Johnson 8, Stein 2 (tie)

The polls continue to show a drift towards Trump, including in state polls.  One interesting question concerns Johnson and to a lesser extent Stein.  Johnson often gets 10% or so in state polls, and Stein varies, sometimes reaching 5%.  But unlike Ross Perot in 1992 (and 1996 to a lesser extent), Johnson hasn’t caught the eye of voters.  In fact, his main headline recently was negative – when he asked “What’s Aleppo?”  People are choosing him out of dislike of both major party candidates.  I believe ultimately Johnson will be lucky to hit 5%, and Stein will probably be below 2%.  Where will those voters go?  Right now they seem to be hurting Hillary more than Trump, but she can’t count on those votes.

September 15, 2016 – Thursday

CBS:  Trump 42, Clinton 42, Johnson 8, Stein 4 (tie)
LA Times/USC tracking:  Trump 47, Clinton 41 (Trump + 6)
Rasmussen:  Trump 42, Clinton 40, Johnson 7 (Trump + 2) 
CVoter:  Trump 48, Clinton 47 (Trump + 1)

North Carolina (Civitas):  Trump 42, Clinton 42, Johnson 5 (tie)
Texas (Lyceum):  Trump 39, Clinton 32, Johnson 9, Stein 3 (Trump + 7)
Virginia (Mary Washington U):  Clinton 40, Trump 37, Johnson 8, Stein 1 (Clinton +3)
Iowa (Monmouth):  Trump 45, Clinton 37, Johnson 8, Stein 2 (Trump + 8)
Ohio (Suffolk):  Trump 42, Clinton 39, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Trump + 3)
Michigan (Detroit Free Press):  Clinton 38, Trump 35, Johnson 10, Stein 4 (Clinton + 3)
Georgia (Fox 5):  Trump 46, Clinton 42, Johnson 10 (Trump + 4)

11:18 AM – At this point it looks like the race has gone from a slight Clinton lead to neck and neck, maybe even a slight Trump lead.  It’s been a slow, but real drift towards Trump.  Most troubling for Clinton is the way swing state polls have also drifted towards Trump, including today Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and a much smaller lead for Clinton in Virginia.

September 14, 2016 – Wednesday 

LA Times/USC Tracking:  Trump 47, Clinton 42  (Trump + 5)
Quinnipiac:  Clinton 41, Trump 39, Johnson 13, Stein 4, (Clinton + 2)
Economist/YouGov:  Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 3 (Clinton + 2)

Ohio (Bloomberg): Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 10, Stein 3 (Trump + 5)
Maine CD2:  Trump 47, Clinton 37, Johnson , Stein 5 (Trump + 10)
South Carolina (Trafalgar):  Trump 53, Clinton 38, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (Trump + 15)
Massachusetts (Boston Globe): Clinton 54, Trump 28, Johnson 9, Stein 4 (Clinton + 26)
Nevada (Monmouth):  Trump 44, Clinton 42, Johnson 8 (Trump + 2)

8:00 AM:  Trump seems to be surging in early polls on Wednesday.  Note that the Maine poll is for the second congressional district (my own district).  Maine allocates electoral votes by distract, so even though Clinton will win the state (most likely), one of the electoral votes could go to Trump – that could be significant.

With Clinton’s illness – one that makes it difficult to campaign and which feeds into the rhetoric about her not being well enough for the job – this could be a break out moment for Trump.  We’ll see.

September 13, 2016 – Tuesday

LA Times/USC tracking:  Trump 46, Clinton 43 (Trump + 3)
NBC/SM:  Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 11, Stein 4 (Clinton + 2)
Ipsos:  Clinton 39, Trump 39, Johnson 8 (tie)

Virginia (PPP):  Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Clinton + 6)
California (Survey USA): Clinton 57, Trump 32, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (Clinton + 25)
Nevada (PPP):  Clinton 45, Trump 42 (Clinton + 3)
South Carolina (Starboard):  Trump 48, Clinton 35, Johnson 7 (Trump + 13)
Oregon (icitizen): Clinton 43, Trump 28, Johnson 11, Stein 3 (Clinton + 15)
Texas (Emerson): Trump 42, Clinton 36, Johnson 10, Stein 6 (Trump +6)
Maine (SurveyUSA): Clinton 42, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 5  (Clinton + 3)
Kansas (Survey USA): Trump 48, Clinton 36, Johnson 8, Stein 2  (Trump + 12)

The campaign seems to have hit an equilibrium, the Clinton appearing to hold on to her lead, especially in state polls.  National polls show a very tight race.  Clinton’s illness could be a serious factor.  Walking pneumonia is not something one recovers from quickly, and it can drain one of energy for weeks – even months.  So this bears watching – will this dramatically hinder her campaign?

September 12, 2016 – Monday

LA Times/USC tracking: Clinton 44, Trump 44 (tie)
Gravis: Clinton 43, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 1 (Clinton + 3)
CVoter tracking: Trump 49, Clinton 46 (Trump + 3)

Utah (Utah Policy): Trump 39, Clinton 24, Johnson 13, Stein 0 (Trump + 15)
Michigan (Mitchell):  Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 7, Stein 1 (Clinton + 6)
Florida (JMC): Trump 46, Clinton 42, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (Trump + 4)
Iowa (Raba):  Trump 40, Clinton 39, Johnson 10, Stein 3 (Trump + 1)
Florida (YouGov): Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (Clinton + 2)
Ohio (YouGov):  Clinton 46, Trump 39, Johnson 7, Stein 2 (Clinton + 7)
California (Survey Monkey), Clinton 49, Trump 29, Johnson 11, Stein 6 (Clinton + 20)

Not much new – Trump has closed Clinton’s lead in most polls, and state polls also show a tight race (though many ‘blue’ or ‘red’ states have their candidate with a decisive lead.)   There may be evidence that Johnson’s support is slipping a bit, but it’s too early to tell.

Stein broke 5% in the California poll, and given Clinton’s big lead it’s safe there for progressive to protest and vote Stein.  In swing states, Clinton needs to worry about Stein playing the spoiler and giving the election to Trump.  In looking at poll internals it also appears Johnson voters are more likely to choose Hillary in a two way race; Trump benefits from the two “third party” candidates.

September 11, 2016 – Sunday

CVoter:  Trump 48, Clinton 47 (Trump + 1)
LA Times/USC:  Clinton 45, Trump 44 (Clinton + 1)
ABC/Wash Post: Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 9, Stein 2  (Clinton + 5)

Nevada (NBC/Marist): Trump 42, Clinton 41, Johnson 8, Stein 3 (Trump + 1)
Arizona (NBC/Marist): Trump 40, Clinton 38, Johnson 12, Stein 3 (Trump + 2)
New Hampshire (NBC/Marist): Clinton 39, Trump 37, Johnson 15, Stein 3 (Clinton + 2)
Georgia (NBC/Marist): Trump 44, Clinton 42, Johnson 10 (Trump + 2)
Florida (YouGov): Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (Clinton + 2)

Google Consumer surveys released data on a number of states, but again these states often had very low sample size.

Trump Leads (Google): Texas +17, Missouri + 19, Indiana + 24, Colorado + 3, Georgia + 11, Wisconsin + 1, Tennessee + 21, Arizona + 7, West Virginia + 15, Montana + 31, Mississippi + 15, South Carolina + 5, New Mexico + 10, Nebraska + 20, Oklahoma + 19, Iowa + 3, Arkansas + 8, Louisiana + 27, Kentucky + 16, Utah + 18, Kansas + 8, Alabama + 13, Idaho + 26

Clinton Leads (Google): New York + 22, Illinois + 18, New Jersey + 11, Pennsylvania +5, California + 27, Ohio + 2, North Carolina + 1, Washington + 8, Michigan + 1, Massachusetts + 24, Virginia + 13, Maryland + 24, Minnesota + 10, Delaware + 22, Maine + 19, Connecticut +6, New Hampshire + 13, Nevada + 3, Oregon + 12, DC + 26

Tie:  Florida

The NBC state polls also tried a head to head; in general Johnson seems to be hurting Hillary more than Trump.   I wouldn’t read too much into the google state surveys; again sample size is often quite low.  The race still seems close, Clinton still holds a lead.  But state polling like NBC/Marist’s shows that the race is tightening, and Clinton’s lead is weak.

September 9, 2016 – Friday

LA Times/USC:  Clinton 44, Trump 44 (tie)

Indiana (WTHR/HPI):  Trump 43, Clinton 36, Johnson 11 (Trump +7)
Louisiana (ALGR):  Trump 46, Clinton 40 (Trump + 6)

Nothing really new today – I suspect the race to meander about where it is until the first debate.  It does seem that after a steady Trump rise, we see a new equilibrium, with a small Clinton lead, for now.

September 8, 2016 – Thursday

CVoter:  Clinton 47, Trump 47  (tie)
Rasmussen: Clinton 43, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 2  (Clinton + 4)
LA Times/USC:  Clinton 45, Trump 43 (Clinton + 2)

Colorado: (Magellan):  Clinton 41, Trump 36, Johnson 13, Stein 3  (Clinton + 5)
Florida (Quinnipiac): Trump 43, Clinton 43, Johnson 8, Stein 2 (tie)
Ohio (Quinnipiac):  Trump 41, Clinton 37, Johnson 13, Stein 4 (Trump + 4)
Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac):  Clinton 44, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 3  (Clinton + 5)
North Carolina (Quinnipiac): Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 15  (Clinton + 4)
North Carolina (Suffolk):  Trump 44, Clinton 41, Johnson 4 (Trump + 3)

Trump has be surging a bit lately, but the early polls today have good news for Clinton – she’s actually got a lead in the previously Trump-leaning LA Times national poll, and she maintains a small but real lead in almost every poll.   But the real story line is that Trump is close enough that the debates and the campaign to come could push him ahead.  I don’t list them, but Quinnipiac did head to head polls for each state too.  Almost always the result was similar, but in Ohio Trump’s lead dropped from 4 to 1 point when it was head to head, suggesting that the Johnson candidacy may be helping him.  An odd difference between Quinnipiac and Suffolk’s North Carolina polls – Clinton leads by 4 in one, but Trump is up 3 in the Suffolk poll.  Johnson is 11 points less in the Suffolk poll.

September 7, 2016 – Wednesday

GWU:  Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 11, Stein 3 (Clinton + 2)
Morning Consult: Clinton 38, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 4 (Clinton + 2)
Ipsos: Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 8 (Clinton + 2)
Google: Clinton 34, Trump 32, Johnson 9 (Clinton + 2)
LA Times/USC:  Trump 44, Clinton 44 (tie)
Economist/YouGov: Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 5

Arizona: (Arizona Republic), Clinton 35, Trump 34 (Clinton + 1)
Florida (PPP):  Trump 44, Clinton 43, Johnson 5, Stein 1 (Trump + 1)
New Hampshire (Emerson): Clinton 42, Trump 37, Johnson 14, Stein 4 (Clinton + 5)
Maine  (Emerson): Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 12, Stein 2 (Clinton + 9)
Maine 2nd District (Emerson): Trump 41, Clinton 36, Johnson 13, Stein 1 (Trump + 5)
Rhode Island (Emerson): Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 8, Stein 4 (Clinton + 3)
New Jersey (Emerson): Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (Clinton + 4)
Pennsylvania (PPP): Clinton 47, Trump 42 (Clinton + 5)
New Hampshire (PPP): Clinton 46, Trump 41 (Clinton + 5)
Iowa (PPP):  Clinton 45, Trump 43 (Clinton + 2)

National polls seem to be in agreement that Clinton holds a small lead, about two percentage points.   The national polls have a lot of undecideds, so the race is fluid.  If you read the analyses of the polls, it looks like Johnson and Stein are hurting Clinton more than Trump.   PPP’s Florida poll has Trump in the lead in a four way race, but when asked about a head to head contest, Clinton would lead.  The race remains very close, Clinton’s lead is real, but not safe.

September 6, 2016 – Tuesday

LA Times/USC:  Trump 44, Clinton 44 (tie)
CNN:  Trump 45, Clinton 43, Johnson 7, Stein 2 (Trump + 2)
NBC:  Clinton 41, Trump 37, Johnson 12, Stein 4 (Clinton + 4)
CVoter:  Clinton 49, Trump 47 (Clinton + 2)
RKM Research:  Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 8, Stein 3 (Clinton + 3)

Survey Monkey, a polling firm with a so-so reputation (also the source of the NBC poll for the Presidential vote) released a slew of state polls.  Rather than go through each one, here is a summary:

States where Trump leads:  Iowa + 4, Kentucky +23, Louisiana + 16, Arkansas + 9, Mississippi + 3, Oklahoma + 23, Indiana + 16, Nebraska + 10, Georgia + 1, West Virginia + 25, Utah + 7, Ohio + 3, Kansas + 13, Alaska + 7, Tennessee + 20, Montana + 13, Idaho + 19, South Carolina + 7, North Carolina + 1, Missouri + 9, Arizona + 2, North Dakota + 25, Wyoming +36,  South Dakota + 14

States where Clinton leads: Maryland + 27, Massachusetts + 19, New York + 20, Connecticut + 11, Maine + 3, Pennsylvania + 3, Oregon + 15, California + 21, New Hampshire + 6, Virginia + 7, New Mexico + 8, New Jersey + 15, Delaware + 10, Minnesota +7, Illinois + 14, Florida + 2, Wisconsin + 2, Washington + 10, Michigan + 1, Nevada + 3, Vermont + 21, Hawaii + 26, Rhode Island + 8

States with ties:  Texas, Colorado

States where Johnson is at or above 15%: Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, New Mexico, Minnesota, Kansas, Alaska, Idaho, Washington, Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, South Dakota, Rhode Island,

A few points:  In so many states there is no contest.  It is remarkable how large margins exist in much of the country, showing a geographical partisan split.  Johnson is above 15% in 14 states.  Of those, only three are considered swing states, the others are pretty safely in the Trump or Clinton camp.   The race still has Clinton leading, but given how bad August was for Trump, he’s entering the race with a real chance to move ahead – and is ahead in some national polls.

September 4, 2016 — Sunday

LA Times/USC:  Trump 45, Clinton 42 (Trump + 3)

Pennsylvania (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Clinton +8)
North Carolina (CBS/YouGov):  Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 4, Stein 2 (Clinton + 4)

The tracking LA Times/USC tracking poll has given Trump a consistent lead.  It has been an outlier, but it’s been consistent.  Good news for Clinton in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  Not much in the way of new polls today.

September 3, 2016 – Saturday

Uff-da!  Lots of state polls released by Ipsos today.  My main comment is below, but keep in mind – Ipsos polling has been done over three weeks, and many states have below 400 likely voters in the sample size.  So take each one with a grain of salt…

LA Times/USC:  Trump 45, Clinton 42 (Trump + 3)

Ohio (Ipsos):  Trump 46, Clinton 43 (Trump + 3)
California (Ipsos): Clinton 63, Trump 24, (Clinton + 29)
Texas (Ipsos): Trump 49 Clinton 32  (Trump + 17)
Pennsylvania (Ipsos):  Clinton 48, Trump 42 (Clinton + 6)
Florida (Ipsos):  Clinton 48, Trump 45 (Clinton + 3)
New York (Ipsos): Clinton 50, Trump 28 (Clinton + 22)
Illinois (Ipsos):  Clinton 50, Trump 37  (Clinton + 13)
Virginia (Ipsos): Clinton 50, Trump 37 (Clinton + 3)
North Carolina (Ipsos):  Clinton 49, Trump 44 (Clinton + 5)
Indiana (Ipsos):  Trump 56, Clinton 32 (Trump + 24)
Georgia (Ipsos):  47, Clinton 41 (Trump + 6)
Missouri (Ipsos):  Trump 51, Clinton 35 (Trump + 16)
Arizona (Ipsos):  Trump 45, Clinton 41  (Trump + 4)
Massachusetts (Ipsos):  Clinton 48, Trump 32  (Clinton + 16)
Wisconsin (Ipsos):  Trump 38, Clinton 38 (tie)
Tennessee (Ipsos):  Trump 49, Clinton 31 (Trump + 18)
New Jersey (Ipsos):  Clinton 47, Trump 36 (Clinton + 9)
Minnesota (Ipsos):  Clinton 42, Trump 33  (Clinton + 9)
Washington (Ipsos):  Clinton 45, Trump 35 (Clinton + 10)
Michigan (Ipsos):  Clinton 42, Trump 42  (tie)
South Carolina (Ipsos):  Trump 48, Clinton 45 (Trump + 3)
Maine (Ipsos):  Trump 42, Clinton 42 (tie)
Louisiana (Ipsos)  Trump 57, Clinton 37  (Trump + 20)
Utah (Ipsos):  Trump 35, Clinton 34  (Trump + 1)
Oklahoma (Ipsos):  Trump 48, Clinton 37 (Trump + 9)
Alabama (Ipsos):  Trump 52, Clinton 39  (Trump + 13)
Nebraska (Ipsos):  Trump 45, Clinton 38 (Trump + 7)
Oregon (Ipsos):  Clinton 44, Trump 39 (Clinton + 5)
Kansas (Ipsos):  Trump 52, Clinton 37 (Trump + 15)
Maryland (Ipsos):  Clinton 52, Trump 32 (Clinton + 20)
Kentucky (Ipsos):  Trump 46, Clinton 42 (Trump + 4)
Iowa (Ipsos):  Trump 44, Clinton 41  (Trump + 3)
Mississippi (Ipsos):  Trump 49, Clinton 30 (Trump + 19)
Nevada (Ipsos):  Clinton 43, Trump 35 (Clinton + 8)
Connecticut (Ipsos):  Clinton 47, Trump 39 (Clinton + 8)
Arkansas (Ipsos):  Trump 48, Clinton 42  (Trump + 6)
West Virginia (Ipsos):  Trump 55, Clinton 38  (Trump + 17)
Colorado (Ipsos):  Clinton 45, Trump 39  (Clinton + 6)
Idaho (Ipsos):  Trump 58, Clinton 28  (Trump + 30)
New Hampshire:  Trump 45, Clinton 44 (Clinton + 1)

Overall, these state polls have more good news for Trump than for Clinton.  Maine, Wisconsin and Michigan are ties, New Hamsphire is very close.  Trump leads in Iowa and Ohio.  If he wins all those states, it’ll be hard for Clinton to prevail.  But other polls show those states more friendly to Clinton, so we’ll have to wait and see.  Bottom line: the election appears closer than some believe, and look at how many states one or the other lead by a comfortable margin.  The country is divided on geographic lines.  The level of partisan division is very high.
September 2, 2016 – Friday

CVoter:  Clinton 48, Trump 46, (Clinton + 2)
LA Times/USC:  Trump 44, Clinton 43 (Trump + 1)
IBD/TIPP:  Trump 39, Clinton 39, Johnson 12, Stein 3  (tie)
IPSOS:  Clinton 39, Trump 38, Johnson 8, Stein 2 (Clinton + 1)

Kansas (Remington):  Trump 44, Clinton 37  (Trump + 7)
Iowa (Emerson): Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 8, Stein 1 (Trump + 5)
Virginia (Emerson): Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 11, Stein 3 (Clinton + 1)
New Hampshire:  Clinton 43, Trump 32, Johnson 12, Stein 4 (Clinton + 11)

3:33 PM – the polls continue to show a tightening race, with Trump very close to Clinton.  The best news for Trump today is that he leads Iowa and has closed the gap against Clinton in Virginia.  To be sure that’s only one pollster, Emerson College.  They have a decent track record, and they limited their polling to likely voters.  All of this suggests that as bad as things may have appeared for Trump in August, he’s still very much in the race.

September 1, 2016 – Thursday

Rasmussen:   Trump 40, Clinton 39, Johnson 7, Stein 3 (Trump + 1)
USA Today/Suffolk:  Clinton 42, Trump 35, Johnson 9 Stein 4, (Clinton +7)
CVoter:  Clinton 49, Trump 46, (Clinton + 3)
LA Times/USC:  Trump 45, Clinton 42, (Trump +3)

Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall): Clinton 40, Trump 35, Johnson 7, Stein 3 (Clinton +5)
Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall): Clinton 47, Trump 40 (Clinton + 7)
Arizona: (PPP):  Trump 46, Clinton 43 (Trump + 3)
New Hampshire (PPP):  Clinton 46, Trump 40 (Clinton + 6)
North Carolina (PPP): Clinton 45, Trump 44 (Clinton + 1)
Ohio (PPP):  Clinton 46, Trump 42 (Clinton + 4)
Missouri (PPP):  Trump 47, Clinton 41 (Trump + 6)
Wisconsin (PPP):  Clinton 48, Trump 41 (Clinton + 7)
Pennsylvania (PPP):  Clinton 48, Trump 43 (Clinton + 5)
Virginia (Hampton):  Clinton 43 Trump 41, (Clinton + 2)

The first day of polls suggests that Hillary Clinton has a solid, but not insurmountable lead over Donald Trump.  Rasmussen and the LA Times have consistently had Trump out performing other polls.   Although today’s national polls have two showing Hillary in the lead, two with Trump, most polling still gives Clinton the lead.  But clearly it’s a race.

In state polls Clinton is faring well.  In a poll of swing states she leads comfortably where she must win, and is close in Arizona, which Trump must win to have a chance.   At this point it’s safe to say that Clinton goes into September as the favorite, but anything can happen.  Also, the two third party candidates, Johnson and Stein, appear to be hurting Clinton more than Trump whenall four are asked about.  That isn’t necessarily bad news for Clinton – polling at this point usually gives third party candidates a higher percentage than they actually end up with in November.  Voters ditching a third party candidate are more likely to go to Clinton than Trump.   So the horse race is underway!

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