My Prediction: Kasich-Rubio

kasich

All the talk is about Cruz and Trump these days, but I don’t see either of them getting the Republican nomination.  Trump seems to be imploding.  He’s falling in the polls and his reality TV like gig is starting to wear on the American people.   Unless he mounts some kind of come back, he is looking less and less likely to go into the GOP convention with enough delegates to win the nomination.

Ted Cruz may be the “main challenger” to Trump now, but he’d need to win 80% of remaining delegates to come to the convention with the nomination in hand.  He is not going to do that.   And while he will claim he is the “top alternative” to Trump, he doesn’t have a strong argument.  After all, if it’s OK to deny the guy with the most delegates the nomination, it’s certainly just as legitimate to deny the nomination to the number two guy!

More important, Cruz has strong negatives against him.  First, the GOP establishment (i.e., almost all of the Senate) dislike him.  He is neither respected nor trusted.   Second, if Trump is denied the main role, there is a real danger that he’ll do and say things to try defeat the eventual nominee.  The Republicans will want to find a way to convince him to support the party.  One conditions is almost certain: the nominee can’t be Ted Cruz.  Trump has too much animosity towards him.  Indeed, Trump may be given the role of acting as the king maker, “voluntarily” removing himself from the running to endorse Kasich.  That way, he also saves face.

Why Kasich?  So far, except for very early in the campaign, Kasich has avoided engaging Trump directly.  He’s remained the adult –  and I’m betting the Republicans will find a way to get Trump to call on his delegates to support Kasich.  Revenge against Cruz might in part motivate such Trump graciousness.

cruzsex

It’s unclear how much truth there is to the rumors, but Cruz could also be facing a major sex scandal as the year goes on.

The case for Kasich will be stronger if he’s teamed with another major candidate – Marco Rubio.  Rubio may not have been ready for prime time in the Presidential ring, but he’s exactly the kind of Vice Presidential candidate someone Kasich would need.  Kasich is a midwest white Governor who is 64 years old.  A young hispanic Marco Rubio from Florida would be a perfect balance.

After all, what two states were the most consequential in the last four elections?  Yes – Ohio and Florida!

Such a ticket would have numerous advantages.  First, it could win.  Hillary is licking her chops eyeing both Trump and Cruz, two candidates with a track record that leaves them wide open for attack over past positions and statements.  Trump is, well, Trump.  Cruz is a bit creepy and not very likable.

dreamticket

A Republican dream ticket?

But what about the conservative base?   A few ardent Cruz supporters will be incensed that the establishment got their way, but Kasich is definitely a true conservative.  Yes, he’s pragmatic – that means he can deal with liberals and isn’t driven by ideological zeal.  But looking at his record over the years he is one of the more conservative politicians in the Republican party.   My bet is that a focus on his record will convince most who now would oppose Kasich to embrace him.   After all, once the heat of the campaign is underway their choice will be Kasich or Clinton (perhaps Sanders)!

Obviously this prediction seems a long shot.  Yet it seems increasingly unlikely that either Trump or Cruz will be the nominee — their constant exchange of insults belittle both of them.   Kasich is the best positioned to not only get the nomination but to win in November.

So that’s my March 30, 2016 prediction: Kasich-Rubio will emerge from the convention in Cleveland to represent the Republican party in November.

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  1. #1 by List of X on March 30, 2016 - 22:19

    I still think that Trump has a good chance to win the nomination outright: all the big remaining states like CA, PA, NY, NJ seem much more favorable to Trump than to Cruz or Kasich, although many states do have proportional delegate allocation so a better chance that he won’t. However, he definitely will come to the convention with the large plurality of delegates, and he’ll still have a good chance to get the nomination there, because if the party does want a Kasich-Rubio ticket, neither Cruz nor Trump will go with it, and they already got more than 60% of the primary vote between them.

  2. #2 by lbwoodgate on March 31, 2016 - 13:18

    “Trump seems to be imploding.”

    Which really may be in his game plan. I am beginning to believe more and more that he never really wanted to be President as his former communications director Stephanie Cegielski stated last. Why else would he deliberately continue to offend large blocs of voters with his asinine comments? He merely wants to shake up the corrupt and stagnated GOP.

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