Guide to the 2010 Midterm Elections

(UPDATE: Senate added at the end)

Will the Republicans ride a wave to a 60 to 70 seat pick up?  Will the Democrats manage to defy odds and hold the house, limiting loses?  We are nearing the day when these questions will be answered in one of the most fascinating off year elections in recent history.   There are not only nearly 100 seats in play, but the polls show so many of them very close, there is extreme uncertainty.

If you wish, you can print out this post and use it as a guide to election night.   It’s designed to help one see if a Republican wave or a Democratic resurgence is forming, and early on get a sense of how the election is going.   This is difficult to organize since so many races are taking place.   I have decided to: a) organize by poll closing time for states; and b) color code the races to make it easier “at a glance” to see how things are going.   I am not including “safe” seats, but only the seats considered most “in play.”  The code is as follows:

Red: Races Republicans are expected to take easily.
If the Democrats win any of these, that is a good sign for the Democrats.  If they win many, they could well keep the house.

Orange: Races Republicans are considered likely to win.
If Republicans pick up 45 – 50 seats, these are the ones they’ll likely win.  If many of these go the Democrats way, then the House could go either way.  If the Republicans sweep these, then they could well be in for a “wave” election.

Green: Pure toss ups.
These could go either way.   If it splits rather evenly, then the GOP will have the predicted big win.   If most are GOP, then it’s a wave election.   If most go Democratic, the House could still be won by the Democrats.

Blue:  Races the Democrats are expected to win.
These are races the Democrats should win even if it is a big GOP night.  If these go to Republicans, it’s likely a victory of historic proportions for the GOP.

Purple: Races the Democrats are likely to win.
These are the races that lean Democratic.  If the Republicans do good here, they should have an even better than expected night.

Below I have 106 races in play.  If it goes as expected, the Republicans would gain at least 39 seats (expected GOP wins, not including 29 tossups), exactly what they need to control the House.  If the GOP wins half of the toss ups they would gain 53 seats, which is about what people are predicting.  On election night if you see either party dominating the toss ups, or gaining seats that the other party expected to win, that will be a hint of what is to come during the evening.

Polls Closing at 6:00 or 7:00 (For ease I will list the Republican first in each race.  An asterisk at the end means it’s a projected pick up for the party whose color is indicated; for toss ups the current party will be listed)

IN 8: Bucscon vs. Van Haaften *
FL 8: Webster vs. Grayson*
FL 25: Rivera vs. Garcia
FL 24: Kosmas vs. Adams*
VA 5: Hurt vs. Parriello*
IN 9:  Young vs. Hill*
VA 2: Rigell vs. Nye*
FL 22: West vs. Klein*
GA 8: Scott vs. Marshall*
SC 5: Mulvaney vs. Sprat*
GA 2: Keown vs. Bishop (Current: Dem)
VA 11: Fimian vs. Connolly (Current: Dem)
FL 12: Ross vs. Edwards (Current: Rep)
KY 6: Barr vs. Chandler
VA 9: Griffith vs. Boucher
IN 2: Walorski vs. Donnelly
KY 3: Lally vs. Yarmuth
FL 12: Ross vs. Edwards*

Polls Closing at 7:30

OH 15: Stivers vs. Kilroy*
OH 1: Chabot vs. Driehaus*
OH 6: Johnson vs. Wilson*
OH 16: Renacci vs. Bocieri*
NC 8:Johnson vs. Kissel (Current: Dem)
NC 7: Pantano vs. McIntyre (Current: Dem)
NC 11: Miller vs. Schuler (Current: Dem)
OH 18: Gibbs vs. Space (Current: Dem)
WV 1: McKinley vs. Oliverio (Current: Dem)

NC 2: Elmers vs. Etheridge

Polls that Close at 8:00

FL 2: Southerland vs. Boyd*
IL 11: Kinzinger vs. Halvorson*
MS 1: Nunnlee vs. Childers*
NH1: Guinta vs. Shea-Porter*
PA 3: Kelly vs. Dahlkemper*
TN 6: Black vs. Carter*
TN 8: Fincher vs Herron*
TX 17: Flores vs. Edwards*
MD 1: Harris vs. Kratovil*
PA 7: Lentz vs. Meehan*
PA 11: Barletta vs. Kanjorski*
IL 17: Schilling vs. Hare*
AR 1: Crawford vs. Causey*
AR 2: Griffin vs. Elliott*
PA 8: Fitzpatrick vs. Murphy (Current: Dem)
PA 10: Marino vs. Carney (Current: Dem)
RI 1:   Loughlin vs. Cicilline (Current: Dem)
AL 2: Roby vs. Bright (Current: Dem)
IL 14: Hultgren vs. Foster (Current: Dem)
TN 4: Desjarlais vs. Davis (Current: Dem)
IL 10: Dold vs. Seals (Currrent: Rep)
NY 19: Hayworth vs. Hall (Current: Dem)
CT 5: Caliguiri vs. Murphy (Current: Dem)
NJ 3: Runyan vs. Adler (Current: Dem)
MA 10: Perry vs. Keating*
MI 17: Walberg vs. Schauer
MI 9: Razcowski vs. Peters
MS 4: Palazzo vs. Taylor
NY 1: Altschuler vs. Bishop
NY 13: Grimm vs. McMahon
NY 23: Doheney vs. Owens
NY 25: Buerkle vs. Maffei
NH 2: Bass vs. Kuster
CT 4: Debicella vs. Himes
MO 4: Hartzler vs. Skelton
DE AL: Urquhart vs. Carney*

Polls Closing at 9:00

CO 4: Gardner vs. Markey*
KS 3:  Yoder vs. Moore*
LA 3: Sangisetty vs. Landry*
MN 6: Bachmann vs. Clark
NY 29: Reed vs. Zeller*
WI 7: Lassa vs. Duffy*
WI 8: Ribble vs. Kagan*
MI 1: Benishek vs. McDowell*
SD AL: Noem vs. Herseth-Sandlin*
CO 3: Tipton vs. Salazar*
TX 23: Conseco vs. Rodriguez (Current: Dem)
CO 7: Frazier vs. Perlmutter (Current: Dem)
NY 20: Gibson vs. Murphy (Current: Dem)
NY 24: Hannah vs. Arcuri
MN 8: Kravack vs. Oberstar
MN 1: Demmer vs. Waltz
ME 1: Scontras vs. Pingree
LA 2: Cao vs. Richmond*

Polls closing at 10:00

AZ 1: Gosar vs. Kirkpatrick*
AZ 3:  Quayle vs. Hulburd
ND AL: Berg vs. Pomeroy*
AZ 5: Schweikert vs. Mitchell*
NV 3:  Heck vs. Titus (Current: Dem)
AZ 7: McClung vs. Grijalva (Current: Dem)
AZ 8: Kelly vs. Giffords (Current: Dem)
IA 3:  Zaun vs. Boswell (Current: Dem)
NM2: Pierce vs. Teague (Current: Dem)
IA 2:  Miller-Meeks vs. Loebsack
IA 1: Lange vs. Braley

Polls Closing at 11:00

WA 3:  Herrera vs. Heck*
CA 3: Lungren vs. Bera
CA 11: Harmer vs. McNerney*
CA 45: BonoMack vs. Pougnet
WA 8: DelBene vs. Reichert
OR 5: Brunn vs. Schrader (Current: Dem)
CA 20: Vidak vs. Costa (Current: Dem)
WA 2: Koster vs. Larson
WA 9: Muri vs. Smith
CA 47: Van Tran vs. Sanchez
ID 1: Labrador vs. Minnick

HI 1: Djou vs. Hanabusa

SENATE ELECTIONS

The Senate elections are much easier to handicap.   Because there are fewer of them in play, I’ll simply rank them and not worry about the order.  The Republicans need to pick up ten seats to gain control of the Senate.  Indiana, North Dakota and Arkansas, currently in Democratic hands, are sure to go Republican.  To gain the Senate the GOP would have to pick up 7 more seats.  Of the expected GOP wins,  only two are pick ups.   That means they must win five more, which would be all of the toss ups and one of the three currently leaning Democratic (without losing any of those leaning GOP).

In Florida and Alaska moderate Republicans are running as independents due to their dislike of the tea party candidates who won the GOP nod.  This is more likely to make a difference in Alaska where Miller is a very weak candidate (while Rubio in Florida is running an excellent campaign).   Delaware and Nevada would probably be certain GOP if they had not chosen an untested “tea party” challenges.   Murkowski would certainly caucus with the Republicans if she wins Alaska, Crist is more unpredictable.  Again, the Republican candidate is listed first.

FL:  Rubio vs. Meek vs. Crist (I)
LA: Vitter vs. Melancon
IN:  Coats vs. Ellsworth*
NC: Burr vs. Marshall
OH: Portman vs. Fisher
MO: Blunt vs. Carnahan
NH: Ayotte vs. Hodes
KY: Paul vs. Conway
WI: Johnson vs. Conway*
AK: Miller vs. McAdams vs. Murkowski (I)
CO: Buck vs. Bennett (Current: Dem)
NV: Angle Vs. Reid (Current: Dem)
PA: Toomey vs. Sestak (Current: Dem)
IL:  Kirk vs. Giannoulias (Current: Dem)
WV: Raese vs. Manchin
WA: Rossi vs. Murray
CA: Fiorina vs. Boxer
CT: Blumenthal vs. McMahon
DE: Coons vs. O’Donnell
NY: DioGuardi vs. Gillbrand

I hope you all find this useful!